WJC cancelled. What happened? What's next?
The IIHF has vowed to try to get this tournament played in June, but why didn't they bubble players in the first place? And what will the rescheduled tournament look like?
If you’re searching for a shred of optimism in a hockey landscape that has quickly gone very dark, it probably came Wednesday night. That is when International Ice Hockey Federation president Luc Tardif steadfastly promised to not only have the cancelled World Junior Championship played later next year, but to reschedule five other January tournaments that were recently scrubbed, including the U18 Women’s World Championship.
“Give us time and judge us at the end of the story,” Tardif said. “We’re going to do everything and I believe we’re going to do it.” But ever the politician, he also spoke out of both sides of his mouth. “I don’t know if we’re going to make it,” he said. “Maybe the conditions will not be there.”
So, there you have it. The IIHF and its federations will do everything in their power to see the 2022 championships through, likely with tournaments in June. That represents a whole host of challenges when it comes to the hockey calendar – competition with the Stanley Cup final, the NHL draft and rookie camps – but they’re not insurmountable.
That’s great. And, as Tardif said, perhaps we shouldn’t judge until the end of the story. But the cancellation of the World Juniors and the proposition of moving them to June brings up a whole bunch of questions, some which were only partially answered. Such as:
WHY CANCEL THE TOURNAMENT?
It’s safe to say there was a fair bit of outcry from certain corners when the tournament was scrubbed. Some people couldn’t understand why a handful of positive tests and a few forfeits had to submarine the entire event. Well, it’s because of what Hockey Canada CEO Tom Renney referred to as, “an opponent that was not on the ice, but was bigger than all of us.”
The Omicron variant is the most highly contagious COVID-19 variant we’ve seen by a wide margin. There is speculation that it is not as severe as the Delta and other variants, but nobody can say that with 100 percent certainty at the moment. And while the athletes are young, fit and double vaccinated and likely would not have severe outcomes, they don’t live in a vacuum. And the logistics around quarantining would have been disruptive.
One infectious diseases specialist Hockey Unfiltered spoke with said that once even a couple of players from USA, Russia and Czechia tested positive, “this thing is so contagious, those three teams are done. If you have a positive test on those teams, you can be sure the infection has spread well beyond the individuals who are there. I’d be shocked if that were the actual size of the outbreak.”
So if three teams, including the defending champion, were effectively out of the tournament, that leaves seven, not even enough to have quarterfinal games. And there goes the competitive integrity of the tournament.
WHY NO BUBBLE IN THE FIRST PLACE?
Well, largely because when the tournament was being planned, Omicron wasn’t even a figment of anyone’s imagination, and it seemed at the time that a “protected environment” in “non-exclusive hotels” was going to be sufficient. In fact, Hockey Canada president Scott Smith said that when the teams were initially told of the protective measures in late November and early December, “the sentiment was that our restricted or protected environment was too restrictive.”
The initial plan was to test players daily for the first three days they were in Alberta, then twice more during the tournament. That regimen was quickly increased to daily testing.
Those protocols were fine when Delta was the variant. And until days before the tournament, organizers were under the impression they’d be playing the games in front of capacity crowds and that changed. So it’s difficult to be too hard on the organizers, particularly given that creating the bubble situation they had last year would have added significant costs.
But again, our infectious disease specialist said that, even when they were planning this year’s event, given the unpredictability of everything, “a bubble was a no-brainer. Forget the hindsight bias. If you and I were sitting down and planning a hockey tournament with the resources that (Hockey Canada and the IIHF) have, even without Omicron and in the Delta era, I would have said, ‘Make it a bubble.’ That’s the smart approach. The up-front costs are a lot, but it’s a short duration of time and you have a super-tight seal and you get it done. I would have floated it even without Omicron.”
SO WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
This is where everything gets murky. So, let’s assume Hockey Canada and the IIHF are able to pull this off and run the tournament in June. In Renney’s address, he specifically said the event was being cancelled, “for the balance of the competition.” So does that mean that if and when the World Juniors is rescheduled that they pick up where they left off and, with the exception of the forfeits, continue the tournament? Or do they start from scratch? If the latter is the case, what happens to the statistics? Does Connor Bedard’s four-goal effort against Austria stand as a record for 16-year-old players?
Tardif has already said that all players who were on rosters for this tournament will be eligible to play later, even if they will have turned 20 by the time the tournament begins. (Which makes sense. Players who turn 20 between Jan. 1 and the end of the tournament play every year because the cut-off date is Dec. 31.)
But are teams going to be restricted to the rosters they sent to this iteration of the tournament in the June event? Will the rosters once again be a blank slate? What if someone like a Brandt Clarke, a right-shot defenseman who was a surprise cut from the team, has a monster second half in the Ontario Hockey League and proves he should be on the team? Will Canada be allowed to add him and cut a player who had already made the team? What if the Russians realize their ridiculous edict that compelled them to ignore players playing junior hockey in North America was detrimental and they have a change of heart? Would they be able to add those players? What if a player on the first roster gets injured during the season and can’t play in the rescheduled event? Will the country affected be able to replace him?
The IIHF has a couple of months to work out all of these things. Let’s hope they’re able to do it.