Will the Maple Leafs be same old, same old in 2022-23?

The bar for success was set ridiculously low for this team and it still failed to meet it. In any other organization, that would signal change, but apparently not in Toronto

For a fandom that has had so little to celebrate, it’s remarkable how low the bar is for Toronto Maple Leaf supporters.

“Until we get those results in the playoffs, none of us are going to feel satisfied with our job.”
Brendan Shanahan on June, 2, 2021

If memory serves, was the 2021-22 season not supposed to be the one where the Toronto Maple Leafs unequivocally, absolutely, without any shadow of a doubt had to win at least one playoff round? Was that not where the bar was set? Blowing the 2021 first round to the Montreal Canadiens was their mulligan. This was supposed to be the season when every stroke counted and if the Leafs failed again, there were going to be major changes coming.

Everyone seemed to be singing from the same songbook on that one, inside and outside the organization.

But somewhere along the line, that narrative changed. As it became more and more apparent that the Leafs were on a collision course with the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round, showing up and giving it the old college try seemed to be just as important as getting over the hump. Suddenly those bold proclamations were tempered, replaced by a lowered expectation, which is so incredibly typical of this franchise and its fan base. Think about it. The bar for a successful season that was set for this team was to get one-quarter through the playoffs.

So what did the Maple Leafs go out and do? They came as close as a team possibly can to winning a series without winning it. They did not choke. They did not embarrass themselves. They stood toe-to-toe with a possible dynasty team and came within one disallowed goal of being in a position to beat it. The stars showed up, the goaltending was all right and they played with pride and heart. They can take solace in all those things as they collect their 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs Participation Badge.

So now the Maple Leafs sit on the sidelines again, and once again the narrative has changed. Now the prevailing opinion is that the Leafs have to run it back, that the main architects and core players earned the right with their performance against the Lightning to return and try it all over again. Had the Leafs been swept or blown a big series lead, well then there would have been big changes. But now that they did everyone so proud with such a valiant effort, let’s all just carry on as usual.

Again, so very, very typical of this franchise. Never in the history of professional sports has a team accomplished less and garnered more unconditional love. Last time we checked, the Leafs were not playing in the second round of the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs and that was the bare minimum. Nothing between last season’s playoff collapse and this season’s near triumph changed. The Leafs still lost in the first round and there weren’t supposed to be any caveats.

But now what are we hearing? That president Brendan Shanahan should continue to be in control, that he should stay with GM Kyle Dubas and coach Sheldon Keefe, and that the core of the roster has to remain intact – specifically the big four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander.

Right about now, a lot of comparisons are being made to the 2019 Lightning, a team that had one of the best regular seasons in NHL history, then was wiped out in a first-round sweep to the Columbus Blue Jackets. Please, please stop doing that. They are not even close to the same. What people conveniently forget is that prior to that embarrassment, coach Jon Cooper and core players Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn and Andrei Vasilevskiy advanced to the Stanley Cup final in 2015, then came within one game of winning the Eastern Conference final against the eventual Stanley Cup-champ Washington Capitals in 2018.

For the Lightning, losing that series to Columbus was an aberration. For the Leafs, losing in the first round is a habit.

How can this team return to play in 2022-23 with no significant changes?

So now, the Leafs are supposed to come back with Shanahan, the man who will go into Year 9 of a five-year plan next season with zero post-season success?

They’re expected to turn again to Dubas, whose two main goals in the off-season were to address the organization’s goaltending depth and increase its toughness, only to fail miserably on both counts? Petr Mrazek is a prime candidate to either be bought out or traded, along with an asset and the Maple Leafs’ so-called sandpaper players proved to be non-factors at best, detriments at worst. For all the positive moves Dubas made, and there were many, the GM still could not find a secondary player who could combine grit with ability and/or a capacity to score important goals. And for this, not only is Dubas not in any danger of losing his job, there’s talk of an extension. In what world would anyone else ever get that kind of job security after producing such middling results?

They need to now turn the bench back to Keefe, the guy who started his third line and his Nos. 5 and 6 defensemen for Game 4 in Tampa and was scored on a minute into the game? The coach whose team seemed completely content to come out of Tampa with a split when a win in Game 4 would have given it control of the series? The coach whose “borderline violent” prediction for the series was so incredibly off base and could have derailed his team?

And the four untouchable players should remain untouchable despite taking up $40.5 million in cap space and failing to deliver a signature playoff performance in six tries? It’s truly remarkable how much consternation there is over the contract status of players such as goalie Jack Campbell and winger Ilya Mikheyev. Campbell, at last look, was a 30-year-old goalie who had a blazing start to the season, then faltered, then was just OK in the playoffs. Mikheyev, meanwhile, is the second coming of Paul Byron, perhaps not even that much. If they can be signed for reasonable terms and money, by all means, bring them back. If not, let them walk.

Surely there has to be some reasonable ground between blowing it up and standing pat and hoping that a group that hasn’t delivered in six years will do so in its seventh. Nobody is advocating wholesale changes in Toronto, but there has to be at least one significant alteration. To bring back all of the president, GM, coach and core players after such a stunning run of mediocrity would be something like the textbook definition of insanity. One of the franchise foundations has to change because, as they say, there’s no better predictor of future behavior and performance than past behavior and performance. Fear can be a great motivator, at least in the short term. And if everyone comes back and all is status quo, there will be no reason for anyone in this organization to fear anything.