Why the Colorado Avalanche are the most interesting off-season team in the NHL
The betting here is that they figure things out with their captain and face of the franchise, but will they be able to come to terms with their superstar defenseman?
It’s not a stretch to suggest that the summer of 2021 could be one of the most chaotic and seismic off-seasons in NHL history. The upcoming expansion draft and all the possible machinations that go with it, an increasingly robust free agent crop and the number of star players who could be on the move via trade more than make up for what is being described as just a so-so draft class.
It would also not be a stretch to suggest that the Colorado Avalanche are the most intriguing team to watch in the most intriguing off-season in years. As it stands today, their best defenseman (and arguably their best player), their No. 1 goalie and their captain remain unsigned. How all three of these scenarios play out over the next two weeks will shape the franchise for years to come and have significant reverberations around the NHL.
The most pressing of those situations is Landeskog, who is currently in the middle of a stare down with management over a new contract. Landeskog dropped the other day that he’s “a little disappointed it’s gotten this far and it’s had to come to this point.” There’s all kinds of speculation that the Avs want Landeskog back but are not willing to go beyond a certain number in term and money.
My take is that this is an awful lot of posturing on both sides. And while anything can happen, it would not be the least bit surprising to see Landeskog and the Avs agree to a long-term deal that keeps the captain in Colorado for the rest of his career, which is exactly where he belongs. This looks very similar to the Steven Stamkos negotiations with the Tampa Bay Lightning five summers ago, when they basically told him, “Here’s our offer, if you want it. If not, go out and try to find something better, but this is as good as it’s going to get here.” History has told us, of course, that the Lightning should have actually offered Stamkos less than the eight-year deal at $8.5 million with a full no-move clause. So there’s that.
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Landeskog has established himself and his family in Denver. He’s a franchise icon and he’s one of those players who would look extremely strange in a different uniform. That counts for something. And the Avalanche, whose hockey department is run by the very astute Joe Sakic, knows it has been something of a playoff underachiever over the past couple of years. They’re so on the cusp of winning a Stanley Cup they can taste it. Can they actually afford to subtract Landeskog from that equation and be closer to their goal of winning a championship? Likely not. The Avalanche need Landeskog as badly as he needs them.
There is a deal to be done and the betting here is that they do it. It’s important to remember that during the off-season, teams are permitted to be 10 percent over the $81.5 million salary cap, so long as they are cap compliant for the beginning of the season. That means the Avs, or any other team, can commit to as much as $89.65 million in cap hit, as long as they can work things out in time for puck drop in October. (Insert Tampa Bay Lightning joke here.) The Avalanche have a lot of cap space, and stand to gain another $3.2 million of it if the Seattle Kraken take Ryan Graves in the expansion draft. They also have a lot of players to sign, but if they believe signing Landeskog to a deal that will pay him somewhere in the neighborhood of $8 million and Cale Makar to a long-term deal at about $10 million, they can do it.
Which brings us to Makar, who enters the off-season as one of the most valuable restricted free agents in years. Does that mean there will be an offer sheet tendered to him this summer? Let’s not be silly. Since 2013, there has been one offer sheet tendered, to Sebastian Aho two summers ago by the Montreal Canadiens, and it was such a joke that Carolina Hurricanes GM Don Waddell’s signature is almost illegible on the contract because he was laughing so hard while he was signing it.
What’s interesting to note with Makar are his comparables. Don’t look at the salaries of other young defensemen coming out of entry-level contracts. Look at the deals signed by the best players coming out of their first contracts. If I’m Makar’s camp, I’m not even listening to anyone who points out that Thomas Chabot of the Ottawa Senators set the market when he signed an eight-year, $64 million contract extension that kicked in this past season. However, if you want to talk about the $11.6 million Auston Matthews is making or the $10.9 Mitch Marner is earning – albeit on shorter-term deals – that’s a good starting point. Makar is every bit as important to the Avalanche as Matthews and Marner are to the Leafs, both now and in the future. It would not be a surprise to see him get an eight-year deal averaging $10 million a year, more if he goes short-term.
As far as Philipp Grubauer is concerned, he may have priced himself out of the organization with the season he had in 2020-21. Despite landing on the COVID-19 list, he managed to stay healthy the entire season and finished third in Vezina Trophy voting. It’s anyone’s guess how this ultimately plays out, but Grubauer is definitely No. 3 on the Avalanche’s to-do list, in part because he’s a goalie and, unless you have that franchise guy, everybody seems to just be guessing on goalies these days when it comes to projecting the future. If they don’t re-sign Grubauer, there are options out there.
HOW THE AVS WILL LIKELY HANDLE THE EXPANSION DRAFT
7-3-1 Protection Scheme
Forwards
Nathan MacKinnon
Mikko Rantanen
Andre Burakovsky
Tyson Jost
Nazem Kadri
Valeri Nichushkin
Gabriel Landeskog
Defensemen
Cale Makar
Samuel Girard
Devon Toews
Goalie
Jonas Johansson
WHAT I WOULD DO IF I WERE THE AVALANCHE
8 Players, any position
Nathan MacKinnon
Mikko Rantanen
Andre Burakovsky
Tyson Jost
Cale Makar
Samuel Girard
Devon Toews
Ryan Graves/Nazem Kadri
This requires the Avalanche to take a gamble that Seattle won’t give Landeskog an offer he can’t refuse and, even if they do, he’ll refuse it. Then you sign him before free agency opens July 28. This would leave the likes of Nazem Kadri, Joonas Donskoi, J.T. Compher and Valeri Nichushkin exposed. If Seattle takes Kadri, you’re losing a guy who’s proven you can’t count on him at the most important time of the season and you’re gaining $4.5 million in cap space. If you don’t believe Graves is as good as he was two years ago, you expose him and keep Kadri.