What do we make of the Montreal Canadiens?
Was the Habs' unexpected romp to the Stanley Cup final a one-off aberration or a portent of better days to come? It all depends on your perspective
If you’re still having trouble making out what all of this means for the Montreal Canadiens, you are not alone. That’s because, in the end, their unpredictable run to the Stanley Cup prompted at least as many questions as it did answers. A team that was, twice, one overtime goal away in the first round from being blown up enters the off-season as the second-last team standing in the NHL. It was the only team in Canada that proved capable of handling any kind of adversity, and while the Canadiens got extremely lucky, they get full marks for taking advantage of the good fortune that came their way. That has to count for something, doesn’t it?
But here’s the thing. Because of their unexpected romp through the playoffs, the biggest factor that has changed for the Canadiens has been expectation. It’s quite possible that reality has not. And when that reality is blurred by 49 days of excellence on the tail end of a season that was mediocre, even by charitable standards, that creates a huge imbalance between them.
As the Canadiens clean out their stalls today, there is every reason for them to hold their heads high. And there is every reason for them to think better days are ahead. But for every piece of evidence that points to an uptick in fortunes, there is also a ‘yeah, but’ that should serve to temper those expectations. Let’s go through a few of them:
1. MARC BERGEVIN WAS A FINALIST FOR GM OF THE YEAR
There is absolutely no doubt that the roster that advanced to the Stanley Cup final was the handiwork of Bergevin, who takes turns in Montreal being lionized and maligned, depending on which way the wind is blowing. His group is the result of some deft managerial moves, to be sure. His work last off-season was mind-blowing. Trading Max Domi and getting Josh Anderson in return would have represented a successful off-season for a lot of GMs, but Bergevin hit a bunch more dingers by signing Tyler Toffoli, Corey Perry and Ben Chariot as free agents. Then he extended the contracts of Brendan Gallagher and Jeff Petry. His Shea Weber-for-P.K. Subban deal has aged quite nicely, though his acquisition of Jonathan Drouin for Mikhail Sergachev, not so much.
YEAH, BUT…
Well, the voting for the award was done after the second round of the playoffs, so there’s some recency bias there. Had the Canadiens had been ousted by the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round, Bergevin would’ve lost more than just the award voting – he would’ve almost certainly lost his job. What Bergevin does with his $15 million in cap space going forward is crucial. If this playoff run was indeed a blip and not a portent of things to come and Bergevin makes a bunch of moves thinking the Canadiens are just one or two players away from a Stanley Cup, he could set the franchise back years. He has a busy summer ahead of him. Does he convince the Seattle Kraken to take Jonathan Drouin instead of Jake Allen? What does he do with Phillip Danault, a defensive standout who provides next to zero offense?
2. CAREY PRICE WAS AN ALL-WORLD GOALIE IN THE PLAYOFFS
Price is the single-biggest reason why the Canadiens advanced to the final and why they were able to get so many wins out of so little run support. He was as formidable in these playoffs as he has ever been in his career, his Hart and Vezina Trophy season of 2014-15 included. He got into the heads of his opponents, moved around the crease better than he has in years and proved once again that – when he’s on – he’s worth every penny of the $10.5 million annual salary the Canadiens are paying him. And age is actually irrelevant. Eight teams in the NHL had No. 1 goalies older than Price, who turns 34 in August, and that includes Marc-Andre Fleury, who won the Vezina Trophy at the age of 36. If the will is there for a goalie in his mid-30s, he can still be dominant.
YEAH, BUT…
Is that will still there with Price? Among NHL goalies, only Fleury has more miles on his body. This is the second straight playoff in which Price has been dominant, but it’s also coming off the second consecutive regular season in which he was broken down and very beatable. Price’s playoff heroics won’t mean much if he can’t get the Canadiens into the playoffs in the first place. And if Allen goes to Seattle in the expansion draft, the Canadiens have lost a very key insurance policy.
3. THE PERFORMANCE OF THEIR YOUNG PLAYERS PROVES THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT
Not sure how anyone can look at the chemistry and performance of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield and not be giddy with excitement. Suzuki continues to be the most important player the Canadiens have and a center around whom to build a contending team. Is he the second coming of Patrice Bergeron? Maybe. Caufield, meanwhile, came to the Canadiens with an enormous amount of hype and somehow managed to exceed expectations. In his prime, we should be seeing a lot of 40-40-80 scoring lines from Caufield. Suzuki, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Alexander Romanov are 21 and Caufield is 20. That is an outstanding core around which to build.
YEAH, BUT…
Interim coach Dominique Ducharme, who is all but certain to have the interim tag dropped from his title, displayed time and again that he was more comfortable going with experience in the lineup over youth. For most of the playoffs, he sat Romanov, choosing instead to go with Erik Gustafsson and Jon Merrill on defense. Then he pulled Kotkaniemi out of the lineup in the final, despite the fact that only Suzuki had scored more goals in the post-season. Eric Staal over Kotkaniemi? Are you kidding me? This is an organization that has made a cottage industry of wrecking the development of its young players over the past decade. Even if it means he’ll have to live with some mistakes at key times, the place for Ducharme to have these players is on the ice. A lot. And, oh yeah, you might want to start on a long-term extension for Suzuki, like right now.
4. THE CANADIENS PROVED IN THE PLAYOFFS THAT THEY CAN HANG WITH THE TOP TEAMS IN THE NHL
They should have lost to the Maple Leafs in Round 1 and they didn’t. They should have fallen to the Winnipeg Jets in Round 2 and they swept. They absolutely had no business beating the Vegas Golden Knights in Round 3 and they suffocated them into submission. It was a seven-week window where the Canadiens proved everyone wrong and played the kind of hockey, both systematically and emotionally, that gets you far in the playoffs.
YEAH, BUT…
Would anyone be hugely surprised if the Habs didn’t even make the playoffs in 2021-22? Assuming things return to normal next season, the Canadiens will have to contend with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers in their own division alone. Even if the Atlantic Division sends five teams to the playoffs, that means one of the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders would have to miss the post-season. Of all those teams, the Canadiens would have to make up at least 12 points in the standings next season to catch the worst one, the Islanders. That’s a huge gap for a team that finished 18th overall.
5. THE ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO USE THIS AS A SPRINGBOARD
There’s no doubt the Canadiens, as a group, have gained immeasurable experience and confidence from this run to the final. Their young players were exposed to a level of competition they’d never seen before and, for the most part, they excelled. That will do nothing but make them better players and more difficult opponents. Suzuki and Caufield, in particular, went into situations that should have been well beyond what they were able to handle, and they excelled.
YEAH, BUT…
History is not particularly kind to teams that have come from out of nowhere to get to the Stanley Cup final. The two teams the Canadiens were most compared to during this run were the 1991 Minnesota North Stars and 1982 Vancouver Canucks. They were far better than those teams. What they did was more in line with the 1999 Buffalo Sabres and 2002 Carolina Hurricanes accomplished. The Canadiens finished this season with a .528 points percentage, while those two teams both were at .555, so it’s comparable. The year after the Sabres won the Eastern Conference, they were six points worse. And in 2002-03, the season after the Hurricanes lost to Detroit in the final, they cratered, finishing dead-last in the league with 61 points. More often than not, these unexpected trips to the final are an aberration and not a sign of things to come.