The Champ vs. The Underdog: 2021 Stanley Cup final preview
The Tampa Bay Lightning enter this final with the pedigree, the rings and the edge in talent. But the Montreal Canadiens are clearly putting together something special here
Since the playoffs began, prognosticators have done a far better job of eliminating the Montreal Canadiens than their opponents have. Now that the Habs have reached the Stanley Cup final, their challenge will be to take it over the finish line. And that task will be enormous, far greater than any they have faced in the playoffs. NHL history is well-populated by underdogs and overachievers who have captured playoff magic and made it to the final, but history tells us those teams almost never actually win the Stanley Cup. Whether or not the Canadiens get slapped with a dose of reality in the final remains to be seen, but it would not be a surprise if this were a short and decisive win for the defending Stanley Cup champions.
It would also not be a surprise if the Canadiens made a real series of this. It’s clear the team that stumbled and bumbled its way through the regular season is not the one that’s been on display in the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Lightning, meanwhile, have come exactly as advertised before the season. They have methodically and meticulously picked apart their opponents and been dominant in doing so, regardless of the terms on which the games have been played.
Here’s how each team stacks up going into an intriguing 2021 Stanley Cup final:
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
FORWARD LINES
Ondrej Palat Brayden Point Nikita Kucherov
Alex Killorn Anthony Cirelli Steven Stamkos
Barclay Goodrow Yanni Gourde Blake Coleman
Ross Colton Tyler Johnson Patrick Maroon
DEFENSE PAIRINGS
Victor Hedman Jan Rutta
Ryan McDonagh Erik Cernak
Mikhail Sergachev David Savard
GOALTENDERS
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Curtis McElhinney
MONTREAL CANADIENS
FORWARD LINES
Artturi Lehkonen Phillip Danault Brendan Gallagher
Tyler Toffoli Nick Suzuki Cole Caufield
Paul Byron Jesperi Kotkaniemi Josh Anderson
Joel Armia Eric Staal Corey Perry
DEFENSE PAIRINGS
Ben Chariot Shea Weber
Joel Edmundson Jeff Petry
Erik Gustafsson Jon Merrill
GOALTENDERS
Carey Price
Jake Allen
OFFENSE
Even though the Lightning have an enormous and dynamic offensive arsenal, it might surprise you to learn that neither team had a top-30 NHL scorer this season, nor a point-per-game producer. That has a lot - well, everything - to do with the fact that Nikita Kucherov missed the entire regular season and Steven Stamkos was limited to just 38 games. Montreal’s rock-solid defense and all-world goaltending will be tested to its limit in this series. Brayden Point is continuing to forge a reputation as one of the best clutch offensive producers in the league today and goes into the final with a ridiculous 32.6 shooting percentage. Kucherov, whose ribs were injured on an uncalled Scott Mayfield crosscheck in Game 6 of the semifinal, leads all post-season scorers. In fact, the Lightning have the top four scorers in this year’s playoffs.
The Canadiens have once again been led by Tyler Toffoli, who is turning into an all-time great free-agent acquisition. Almost all their offensive thrust is coming from the second line of Nick Suzuki between Toffoli and rookie Cole Caufield. The Canadiens are not so much a team as they are a committee when it comes to offense. None of them does it at an eye-popping level, but all four lines can create offense, which takes the pressure off any one line to deliver on a given night. Caufield, who is the early favorite for the Calder Trophy in 2021-22, has scored 41 goals in 58 games this season when you add up his totals from the University of Wisconsin, the Laval Rocket and the regular season and playoffs for the Canadiens.
EDGE: Lightning
DEFENSE
The Lightning have a Norris Trophy winner and Conn Smythe finalist in Victor Hedman, and he’s the kind of blueline stud who - checks notes from last season - helps teams win Stanley Cups. But the difference between these two teams defensively is not nearly as wide as you might think, particularly with the Canadiens’ top-four defensemen dominating the way they have in the playoffs. Montreal’s transformation from being unable to keep the puck out of the net to rarely letting it in was that their goaltending was hot garbage during the regular season to historically elite in the playoffs. Their shot suppression was actually in the top third of the league during the regular season. The Canadiens defense – and checking center Phillip Danault - have succeeded in shutting down some of the league’s most talented offensive players and will face a task every bit as daunting against Tampa Bay.
All you had to do to see how good the Lightning can be defensively was watch their 1-0 win over the New York Islanders in Game 7 of the semifinal. They didn’t give up a thing. In fact, that game could still be going on as you read this and there’s a good chance the Islanders still wouldn’t have scored any goals. When the Lightning have an opportunity to close out a series, they smother you. Going back to the Stanley Cup final last season, they haven’t given up a goal in four series-clinching victories.
EDGE: Even
STYLE OF PLAY
Third-line center Jesperi Kotkaniemi probably said it best when he described how the Canadiens went from being so maddeningly inconsistent during the regular season to coming within four wins of capturing the organization’s 25th Stanley Cup. “We found the way to play our game,” he said. “Simple, fast and hard.” Yes, the Canadiens have leaned heavily on the all-world goaltending of Carey Price, but they’ve been a punishing team that strips opponents of pucks and makes them pay for their carelessness. Their quick-strike offense comes primarily from very good defense.
It’s difficult to pinpoint exactly what style of game the Lightning are playing these days because they can play the game any way you’d like them to play. In the first round, the Florida Panthers dragged them into an alley fight and the Lightning won. In the 18 games in this year’s playoffs, they’ve scored four or more goals eight times, including hanging an eight-spot on the Islanders in Game 5 of the semifinal. They’ve outscored teams, they’ve outmuscled teams, they’ve locked opponents down. If they’re not dictating the terms of the game, they’re more than happy to play right along and beat you.
EDGE: Lightning
SPECIAL TEAMS
This final will pit one of the best power-play units in the history of the Stanley Cup playoffs against one of the all-time greatest penalty-killing teams. All you need to know about Montreal’s penalty kill is that going into the final, they have scored four shorthanded goals and have given up only three power-play goals. What makes all of this so remarkable is the Canadiens were 23rd on the penalty kill during the regular season (78.5 percent), but have completely transformed themselves in the playoffs (93.5 percent). Much of that has to do with Price, who has a .952 save percentage while killing penalties.
As good as Montreal’s penalty kill has been, the Lightning have been just as dominant on the power play (37.7 percent). How dominant? Well, consider the fact that Point has seven power-play goals in these playoffs, while the entire Canadiens’ roster has nine.
EDGE: Even
GOALTENDING
If the Canadiens even come close to winning this series, Price will win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP in a rout. Any parallels to the Canadiens teams that won Stanley Cups in 1986 and 1993 start in goal, where Price has in these playoffs been every bit the equal of former Canadiens’ greats Patrick Roy, Ken Dryden and Jacques Plante before him. Coming off the worst regular season of his career, Price gives the Canadiens a real opportunity to win the Cup because he’s capable of stealing four games.
No one would be surprised if Vasilevskiy captures his second Vezina Trophy in three seasons. If you can believe it, his save percentage throughout the playoffs has actually been just slightly better than Price’s. Vasilevskiy has given up 36 goals in 18 games, Price 35 in 17. In big games, Vasilevskiy has been almost impenetrable. Whoever wins this series, this could end up being one of the game’s all-time great goaltending duels.
EDGE: Canadiens
INTANGIBLES
Of the Lightning regulars who have appeared in this year’s playoffs, the only two who don’t have Stanley Cup rings are fourth-line winger Ross Colton and defenseman David Savard. There is nothing the playoffs can throw at this team that it hasn’t already seen and conquered. Over the past two years, every time the Lightning have allowed a team back in a series, they’ve slammed the door of opportunity shut. As defending champions, they are playing with the burden of expectation, but that doesn’t see to affect them. The Lightning are remarkably consistent and not easily rattled.
The Canadiens, on the other hand, have exceeded everyone’s expectations. They’ve entered each series as the second-best team and have won them all. They know they are on the verge of something special here. Because if they win, it will be one of the most unlikely championships in NHL history. This is not the 1971 team, nor is it the 1986 or 93 teams, all of which were significantly better than this one.
WILDCARDS
Tampa Bay: After being injured late in the semifinal against the Islanders, will Kucherov be healthy enough to withstand what he’s about to endure from Montreal’s punishing defense corps and be an impact player in the final?
Montreal: Caufield scored four goals in the semifinal, one fewer than the entire Vegas Golden Knights’ forward corps. The last time the Canadiens had a late-season edition make this kind of contribution in the playoffs, his name was Ken Dryden.
PREDICTION
Tampa Bay in 6
Bolts in 6 sounds right to me, but that's only because the Canadiens have surprised me so much already. As you alluded to in your most recent article the Habs are one of the worst teams to ever reach the Final and I really don't think they have a chance to win four of the next seven games. That said - I didn't think they could beat Vegas, either, so I'll give them two games in the next six but no more.
Great article! The special teams will determine the Stanley Cup champ this year. I’ve already underestimated three times now, but Tampa is simply a better team than Toronto, Winnipeg or Vegas.
Bolts in 5. 🤷♂️🏒