Stanley Cup playoffs preview - Round 1
Presenting a breakdown and prediction for each of the eight first-round series. Now go and enjoy the most wonderful time of the year
EASTERN CONFERENCE
FLORIDA PANTHERS VS. WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Season series
Florida: 2-1-0 (13 GF)
Washington: 1-1-1 (12 GF)
How the Panthers win: By doing exactly what they’ve done since the beginning of the season. The Panthers have been the NHL’s most dominant team, as evidenced by their Presidents’ Trophy and the fact that they’re the highest-scoring team of the salary cap era. A team that already had championship-caliber depth added the most sought-after forward (Claude Giroux) and defenseman (Ben Chiarot) at the trade deadline. Their defensive game is middling and so is their penalty kill.
How the Capitals win: The Capitals have been there and done that, many times. If they can use their firepower to jump on the Panthers early and plant a seed of doubt in their goaltending with some quick goals, their size and experience might just carry them through this series. These are not your older brother’s Capitals, but they’re still capable of being a very dangerous team. Alex Ovechkin missed the final three games of the season, but his ability to produce offense, particularly with the help he’s had in the past, has been remarkable. Tom Wilson had his best-ever offensive season and he’s capable of being a difference maker. The Capitals have a real problem in the crease.
Prediction: Don’t overthink this. The Panthers are dynamic, the Capitals are old and slow with suspect goaltending. Panthers in 5
CAROLINA HURRICANES VS. BOSTON BRUINS
Season series
Carolina: 3-0-0 (16 GF)
Boston: 0-3-0 (1 GF)
How the Hurricanes win: Of all the first-round playoff series, there isn’t one that is more lopsided in terms of the season series. To be blunt, the Hurricanes took the Bruins out to the woodshed this season. To be fair, one of the games was an 8-1 Carolina win in which Tuukka Rask gave up six goals. The Hurricanes play an aggressive, fast-paced game that is focused on puck pressure and keeping the tempo of the game high. They did not have a single player among the NHL’s top 25 scorers this season and only one in the top 50, but they do have offensive depth and got a huge boost offensively with the controversial Tony DeAngelo on their blueline.
How the Bruins win: Well, they might want to start by scoring more than one goal, which is the total they scored in three games against Carolina this season. The Bruins actually caught a break by staying out of the Atlantic Division for the first two rounds of the playoffs, but now it’s up to them to take advantage of it. In a weird way, they probably caught a bit of back luck with the fact that Hurricanes’ goalie Frederik Andersen probably won’t be ready to start the series. Yeah, you read that right. As outstanding as Andersen has been this season, he’s been terrible in the playoffs and the Bruins are a big part of the reason for that checkered history.
Prediction: This will be a defensive battle that will be decided by goaltending. Bruins in 7
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Season series
Toronto: 2-2-0 (12 GF)
Tampa Bay: 2-1-1 (16 GF)
How the Maple Leafs win: It’s quite simple. For all the fuss that has been made about Toronto’s goaltending and defense over the years, the reason they haven’t been able to get out of the first round since the George W. Bush administration – first term! - is that their offense has dried up at the most inopportune time. That cannot happen this time around. The Maple Leafs have put together the best season in franchise history, they have their first true superstar since the days of Charlie Conacher and 13 players hit career highs in points. They simply have to avoid being the usual Maple Leafs and doing usual Maple Leaf things. Just breathe. Just…breathe.
How the Lightning win: For the first time in four years, the Lightning enter a playoff series as the underdog. The Maple Leafs are a better team than they’ve been for the past couple of years and the Lightning are a lesser squad than the one that won the past two Stanley Cups. So why are so many people predicting an upset here? Because the Lightning have the best goalie in the world. They have a group of battle-tested veterans that won’t see anything from the Maple Leafs they haven’t seen before. They have Jon Cooper. And they have Steven Stamkos, who has had better statistical seasons, but not better all-round ones. Ever.
Prediction: The games will be close, but the series won’t. Lightning in 5
NEW YORK RANGERS VS. PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Season series
NY Rangers: 3-1-0 (11 GF)
Pittsburgh: 1-3-0 (4 GF)
How the Rangers win: This is another series that was on the lopsided side during the regular season. After losing 1-0 in the first meeting, the Rangers reeled off three straight wins against Pittsburgh and outscored them 11-3. Much of the Rangers’ success starts and ends with goalie Igor Shesterkin, who will almost certainly win the Vezina Trophy this season and be a serious contender for the Hart. Even though he’s effectively a playoff rookie with only one post-season game to his credit, it’s hard to envision him collapsing now. This is a team that can create dizzying amounts of offense and has learned to play with confidence under coach Gerard Gallant. And GM Chris Drury gave this team some playoff bite when he acquired Barclay Goodrow and Ryan Reaves before the season.
How the Penguins win: Captain Sidney Crosby openly acknowledged that this might be the last opportunity for the Penguins to do something special in a while, and nobody should discount what a factor that could end up being for a team with their pedigree. Every year since they won the Stanley Cup in 2017 was supposed to be the Penguins’ year of reckoning and it has never happened. They have overcome a bunch of injuries to post a 100-point season and their penalty kill has been excellent. As much as they have some of the game’s all-time greats, if the Penguins are to win this series, they’re going to have to grind it out.
Prediction: The injury to Penguins goalie Tristan Jarry swings the pendulum too far in favor of the Rangers. Rangers in 6
WESTERN CONFERENCE
COLORADO AVALANCHE VS. NASHVILLE PREDATORS
Season series
Colorado: 1-1-2 (16 GF)
Nashville: 3-1-0 (17 GF)
How the Avalanche win: Certainly not by playing the way they did down the stretch when they lost the Presidents’ Trophy with a 1-5-1 finish to the season after going 7-0-0 to start the month of April. But the Avs were banged up and not really playing for anything tangible because they had opened up such a big lead in the standings. Now that the games begin for real, look for the Avalanche to get a lot more business-like in their approach. Last year in the playoffs, the Avs received the kick in the pills with a steel-toed boot that it seems every great team needs. They were among the leaders in the Western Conference in both goals for and against. They have depth at every position and more stars/superstars than any team in the NHL. And they won’t need goalie Darcy Kuemper to be spectacular because they’ll have the puck much of the time.
How the Predators win: GM David Poile did a masterful job of tweaking the Predators’ roster and coach John Hynes did an even better job of managing it this season. Undoubtedly, Hynes’ most impressive work was throwing the gauntlet down to Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen and Mikael Granlund and demanding them to be better. And they were. Roman Josi may not win the Norris Trophy this year – he’s neck-and-neck with Cale Makar – but his play at both ends of the ice was epic. For the Predators to have any chance, they need Juuse Saros to get over his ankle injury. Quickly.
Prediction: This could have the makings of an upset, but it won’t be one. Avalanche in 5
CALGARY FLAMES VS. DALLAS STARS
Season series
Calgary: 2-0-1 (11 GF)
Dallas: 1-2-0 (9 GF)
How the Flames win: The most dramatic impact coach Darryl Sutter had on the Flames this season was to convince them that their work ethic had to match their level of talent. The Flames were a perimeter team that tried to create a masterpiece and Sutter convinced them to wear work boots. And the results were astonishing. The talent shone through to be sure, but the Flames were also a nasty opponent to face, and an even more difficult one on which to score. They have one of the most dominant lines in hockey with Elias Lindholm between Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau, the most dynamic 5-on-5 player in Gaudreau, a Vezina-caliber goalie and a very, very solid defense corps.
How the Stars win: The Stars are a team in transition. Their window to win a Stanley Cup has closed, but they have some really good prospects on the way in the next couple of seasons. But in the here and now, the Stars will be leaning on the age-old axiom that defense wins championships. Ryan Suter has bolstered an already formidable defense corps and, while their forwards have a tough time scoring, they know how to play on the other side of the puck. For the Stars to have a chance, the collective effort will have to go toward shutting down the Flames’ high fliers.
Prediction: The Flames will overwhelm with their talent, but it won’t be a cakewalk. Flames in 6
MINNESOTA WILD VS. ST. LOUIS BLUES
Season series
Minnesota: 0-1-2 (12 GF)
St. Louis: 3-0-0 (16 GF)
How the Wild win: There is not a series in the first-round that is more evenly matched than this one. The Wild are like that gangly kid with the weird stride who just goes out and scores. You can’t really put a finger on why, but they’re really good. To be sure, the Wild are more than the sum of their parts because if you break down each area of their game, they’re kind of suspect. But GM Bill Guerin used the trade deadline to bolster his roster. If they can keep this series from becoming a special teams clinic, the Wild should do well because they are very good 5-on-5. Kevin Fiala and Kirill Kaprizov are bona fide stars in the NHL and Guerin’s addition-by-subtraction philosophy allowed some secondary players to show their identity. With the likes of Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman and Nic Deslauriers, the Wild can be a nasty piece of work.
How the Blues win: St. Louis has a dangerous and balanced attack with four lines that can score. They can be downright scary at times with their quick-strike ability. And with Justin Faulk and Torey Krug on the back end, the Blues have the ability to create offense from the blueline as well. Vladimir Tarasenko started to rip it up late in the season and Robert Thomas made the transition into one of the game’s top two-way forwards. The Blues’ top nine is so deep, so experienced and so talented that they provide a matchup nightmare for any opponent. If you remove shootout goals, no team in the Western Conference scored more goals than the Blues this season.
Prediction: Kaprizov & Co., will be dynamic, but the Blues will be consistent and relentless. Blues in 7
EDMONTON OILERS VS. L.A. KINGS
Season series
Edmonton: 3-1-0 (13 GF)
Los Angeles: 1-2-1 (12 GF)
How the Oilers win: The Oilers were in desperation mode when they signed Evander Kane and hired Jay Woodcroft, and those moves conspired to save a season that was quickly circling down the drain. Since then, the Oilers have been one of the best teams in the NHL in all areas of the game. The Oilers win games by overpowering their opponents with blinding speed, an opportunistic offense and a deadly power play. There are warts on this team to be sure, but sometimes a team wins simply on an abundance of talent in key areas. That’s what these Oilers do. It starts and ends with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, among the two best players on the planet, with the likes of Kane and Zach Hyman helping with the heavy lifting up front. This could be a year where McDavid’s playoff contributions are in line with those of the regular season. And if that’s the case, the Oilers will go a long, long way.
How the Kings win: This will be an intriguing matchup – two of the best offensive centers in the NHL going head-to-head with two of the best defensive centers in the NHL. The Kings won’t be able to stop the Oilers from scoring, but they can slow them down if Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault do what they have done in playoffs past. The Kings have been a remarkably resilient group this season and have patched together a lineup that has done some pretty special things. That esprit de corps can often carry a team through the playoffs. Just look at the Montreal Canadiens last year. The Kings have a decided edge in goaltending.
Prediction: Aside from a six-week stretch in which they were putrid, the Oilers are ready to challenge. The Kings will be a tough out, but they’ll be an out. Oilers in 6
I would also like to thank you for your predictions.
You are now in my friend group's playoff challenge. Cheers.
Thanks for sharing your predictions…always a fun romp. But as for the Maple Leafs having their first superstar since Lionel Conacher…there is no record of him even attending one of their games, let alone playing for them. 😎 That would be Charlie Conacher you were searching for.