Situational scoring, first-round previews and the OHL draft

The end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs kicks off the most wonderful time of the year

Connor McDavid didn’t just produce this season, he produced when his team needed it most.

There’s a very good chance that Connor McDavid will be the unanimous winner of the Hart Trophy this season. In fact, it’s hard to imagine there’s a voter out there among the 175 members of the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association who wouldn’t have McDavid as his or her No. 1 choice in 2022-23.

This may be the best McDavid will ever be. He was that dominating. And it showed both in the NHL scoring race and the Situational Scoring race, a stat that is unique to Hockey Unfiltered. While the traditional scoring race tracks goals and assists, Situational Scoring measures offence by importance in a game. Sixth goals in 6-2 wins need not apply. And, of course, in situational scoring, goals are worth more than assists. Why? Because goals are worth more than assists.

In this system goals are worth one point and assists worth half a point, but depending upon when they’re scored goals can be worth more than one point and assists worth more than a half a point. For example, the first goal of a game is automatically worth two points, one for being the first goal of the game and one for putting that player’s team ahead in a game. An overtime goal is worth three, one for putting the team ahead, one for being the game-winner and one for the overtime goal. If that is the only goal in a 1-0 game, it’s worth four.

It can all be a little confusing, so here’s a glossary:

FIRST: When a player scores the first goal of the game.
AHEAD: Any goal that puts a team ahead at any point in the game, including overtime.
TIED: Any goal that pulls a team into a tie at any point in the game.
COMEBACK: A goal that is scored when a team is trailing by two goals or more and is part of a series of goals that eventually ties the game, regardless of the ultimate outcome of the game.
WINNER: A game-winning goal, but not by the NHL’s definition. The game-winner in this category is the goal that puts a team ahead in a game to stay. So in other words, you could have a 7-6 game and maybe the first goal of the game was the game-winner.
OT: Overtime goal.
SO: Only shootout game-winning goals are counted in this category.
NHL: Where the player stands in the actual NHL scoring race.

SITUATIONAL SCORING - DEFENCEMEN

SITUATIONAL SCORING - ROOKIES

EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREVIEW

BOSTON BRUINS VS. FLORIDA PANTHERS

Season series: Bruins won 2-1-1
Prediction: Don’t overthink this, Kenny-Boy. Don’t overthink this. The Bruins are coming off one of the all-time greatest regular seasons in NHL history and they did it by methodically and clinically beating down their opponents. There were no smoke and mirrors here. The Bruins were the gold standard of the league from start to finish. The Panthers salvaged what looked like a disaster and Matthew Tkachuk dragged them into the fight.
Boston in 5

CAROLINA HURRICANES VS. NEW YORK ISLANDERS

Season series: Hurricanes won 3-1-0
Prediction: Man, it’s hard enough to score on Ilya Sorokin, but it’s even more difficult when you lose Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty and you really don’t have a game breaker. Mat Barzal is expected to return to the Islanders lineup for the start of the series and that is a huge addition. Whatever happens, this is going to be a low-scoring series where every inch of the ice will be earned and the defence corps will probably decide it. Let’s go for the upset here.
Islanders in 7

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Season series: Maple Leafs won 2-0-1
Prediction: This series was set before the calendar turned to 2023, much to the chagrin of many Maple Leaf fans who complained about the playoff format again, regardless of the fact that if the format had been based on points by conference, the Leafs would have played a better team in the first round. The Leafs are a little better offensively than the Lightning and much better defensively. But the Lightning are big, physical, heavy and dirty. And deep. And they’ve been there so many times before. But they’re also vulnerable.
Toronto in 6

NEW JERSEY DEVILS VS. NEW YORK RANGERS

Season series: Devils won 3-0-1
Prediction: All season I’ve been saying that the Devils are destined to lose in the first round, but their talent, resilience and overall roster makeup are causing a serious re-think. The Devils are all about pushing the pace and creating lots of offence, which they do very well. The Rangers will have an advantage in the dirty areas of the ice, where much of the game is played in the playoffs. And they have a goalie who is capable of being a major difference maker in a series. Given their rosters and their playoff history, this could very well end up being the most entertaining first-round series.
New Jersey in 7

WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREVIEW

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS. WINNIPEG JETS

Season series: Golden Knights won 3-0-0
Prediction: Both teams should have some very big returnees in their lineups for this series – Mark Stone for the Golden Knights and Nikolaj Ehlers and Cole Perfetti for the Jets. If he returns, it would be a really good time for Ehlers to shake his reputation as a playoff dud. Neither team is particularly flashy, but when it comes to individual talent, the Jets probably have the edge when it comes to high-end players. If this series comes down to goaltending, you have to like Winnipeg’s chances. Connor Hellebuyck ended the season looking like the Vezina Trophy winner he was three years ago.
Winnipeg in 7

EDMONTON OILERS VS. LOS ANGELES KINGS

Season series: Tied 2-2-0
Prediction: The Oilers are an offensive juggernaut, with a scary top six and a historically productive power play, but scoring has never really been the problem in Edmonton. Against a big and physical Kings team that can grind with the best of them, the Oilers now have the personnel, particularly on the back end, to handle the kind of games we see in the playoffs. The Kings, though, will be no easy out, as was the case last season when they extended the Oilers to seven games. But they are not facing this iteration of the Oilers, one that ended the season on a nine-game win streak and gave up just six goals in its final seven games.
Edmonton in 5

COLORADO AVALANCHE VS. SEATTLE KRAKEN

Season series: Seattle won 2-0-1
Prediction: Not having captain Gabriel Landeskog is an enormous loss for the Avalanche, but at the moment they have to be concerned more about all-world defenceman Cale Makar, who missed the final seven games of the season with a lower-body injury. Maybe none of it will matter the way Nathan MacKinnon is playing lately, which is in beast mode. After their first-year growing pains, the Kraken found their stride in Year 2 and while they don’t have even close to the superstar quality of the Avalanche, their ability to score and win by committee is impressive.
Colorado in 6

DALLAS STARS VS. MINNESOTA WILD

Season series: Stars won 2-0-2
Prediction: This is Peter DeBoer’s fourth head coaching job in the NHL. In the other three, he got to the Stanley Cup final twice and the conference final once in his first season with his new team. Nobody would be surprised if the Stars continued the trend with a long playoff run in 2023. But if the Wild can replicate their play in February and March, nobody would be surprised if Dallas’ playoff run doesn’t get out of the first round. Beginning with Kirill Kaprizov vs. Jason Robertson and ending with Jake Oetinger vs. Whomever the Wild Have in Goal, this should be an intriguing series. Losing Joel Eriksson-Ek is a huge blow to the Wild.
Dallas in 7

OHL DRAFT PREVIEW

Matthew Schaefer is poised to go first overall to the Erie Otters. (Photo by Steven Ellis)

Things could change before the OHL draft on Friday night, but from what I’ve been able to glean, here is how the top five picks will likely go:

1. Erie Otters: Brady Schaefer, D, Halton Hurricanes

2. Niagara IceDogs: Ryan Roobroeck, C, London Jr. Knights

3. Soo Greyhounds: Brady Martin, C, Waterloo Wolves

4. Kingston Frontenacs: Tyler Hopkins, C, Halton Hurricanes

5. Niagara IceDogs: Quinn Beauchesne, Nepean Raiders

   

   Ryan Roobroeck has apparently agreed to report to the Niagara IceDogs and will go No. 2 overall. (Photo by Steven Ellis)