Seattle vs. Vegas: Who's better?
The natural inclination would be to say Vegas. But after Day 1 of free agency, when you break it down, they're a lot closer than you think. Perhaps the only difference between the two is circumstances
A pretty common narrative since the expansion draft is that the Seattle Kraken will be a good, but not great, NHL team in 2021-22. Even though the puck won’t drop for another nine weeks, it has been pretty well established that the Kraken can forget about replicating the template established by the Vegas Golden Knights.
And that’s probably going to prove to be true, if for no other reason than the Golden Knights are truly one of the league’s elite teams and will be playing in the Pacific Division along with the Kraken. It’s hard to believe the Kraken would be able to take the Golden Knights out in a playoff series if they were to meet, but it was impossible to think the Montreal Canadiens would have done that a little more than a month ago.
But really, it’s a stretch to expect the Kraken will duplicate the accomplishments of the greatest expansion team in the history of sports, right? That’s what we all think now, as we’re sitting here enjoying the first day after the opening of free agency. But what if I told you that you might want to rethink that? Four years ago, when the Golden Knights loaded up at the expansion draft and did next to nothing in free agency, nobody expected much from them, either. The Kraken took the opposite approach, keeping their powder dry in the expansion draft and staying away from big contracts, then making a huge splash in free agency.
And what if I told you that the roster the Kraken is expected to ice for their first game – against the Golden Knights Oct. 12 – actually had more points in the NHL this past season than the Golden Knights’ regulars had in 2016-17, the season before the Vegas expansion draft? If you go line-by-line and defense pair by defense pair, there’s really not a lot to choose between the two rosters.
When you consider what was expected of the Golden Knights four years ago, they two teams are actually closer in talent than you might think. A lot closer. I’ve compared the roster the Golden Knights put out for the Stanley Cup final with a projected Kraken roster for the first game. And it’s important to remember that the Kraken currently have $16.4 million in cap space with only a few restricted free agents to sign. So there’s room to improve, the way the Golden Knights did in their first season.
If you break it down to the lines, defense pairings and goalies – taking into account where the Golden Knights players were in their careers prior to their first season in Vegas – it’s actually pretty remarkable how closely they stack up.
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FIRST LINES
VEGAS Jonathan Marchessault-William Karlsson-Reilly Smith
SEATTLE Jaden Schwartz-Alex Wennberg-Jordan Eberle
Vegas gets the edge here based on the fact that its wingers entering the 2017-18 season were much more productive than the Kraken’s were last season. In fact, Smith was a salary dump and Marchessault was an expected salary dump by the Florida Panthers, who gift-wrapped both players to Vegas. Funny thing here is that if Wennberg centers the top line, both teams will have been led down the middle by former Columbus Blue Jackets. Wennberg, who enters this season with far superior credentials to Karlsson in 2017-18, can only hope to approach Karlsson’s level of production in Season 1.
SECOND LINES
VEGAS James Neal-Erik Haula-Alex Tuch
SEATTLE Brandon Tanev-Yanni Gourde-Joonas Donskoi
Going into the 2017-18 season, Tuch was a minor leaguer who had been sacrificed by the Minnesota Wild to keep Vegas from plundering their defense corps. This was not a luxury the Kraken had. But Seattle’s projected second line has a little bit of everything and it would be interesting to see how it comes together. Donskoi, in particular, is very underrated in terms of his creativity and ability to generate offense. Two seasons ago, Nathan MacKinnon raved about how Donskoi played when he filled in for the injured Mikko Rantanen.
THIRD LINES
VEGAS David Perron-Cody Eakin-Tomas Nosek/Tomas Tatar
SEATTLE Calle Jarnkrok (or maybe Matty Beniers?)-Jared McCann-Colin Blackwell
Game, set and match to Seattle on this one. Perron was, and continues to be, an above-average offensive producer, but Eakin and Nosek entered their first season in Vegas with almost no offensive credentials. And Tatar, acquired at the trade deadline, was so disappointing that he was a frequent healthy scratch in the playoffs. The keys here will be McCann and Blackwell, both of whom had very sneaky-good seasons in 2020-21. It’s not certain whether McCann will be able to duplicate what he did last season in Pittsburgh and Blackwell, a player we’ve moved to the wing, had a breakout season and must prove he can do with lesser players what he was able to do with Artemi Panarin.
FOURTH LINES
VEGAS William Carrier-Pierre-Edouard Bellemare-Ryan Reaves
SEATTLE Nathan Bastien-Mason Appleton-Tyler Pitlick
Seattle’s fourth line certainly doesn’t have the grit the Vegas’ fourth unit had, but having a player of Appleton’s quality down the middle is huge. And what Seattle’s fourth line gives up in grit and the ability to punish opponents it makes up for in speed. The Kraken’s fourth line is much, much faster than the Vegas’ group and when they are out there next season, expect the tempo to be turned up several notches.
TOTAL POINTS BY FORWARDS
VEGAS 268 (in 2016-17)
SEATTLE 294 (in 2020-21)
FIRST DEFENSE PAIRINGS
VEGAS Brayden McNabb-Nate Schmidt
SEATTLE Mark Giordano-Adam Larsson
If there’s one place where Seattle has a decisive edge on Vegas’ first-year team, it’s on the blueline. The potential Giordano-Larsson combination has a ton of experience and savvy. Giordano will be the puck-moving offensive producer and Larsson will take care of things in the Kraken’s end, and be far more punishing than any defenseman Vegas could throw out in its first season.
SECOND DEFENSE PAIRINGS
VEGAS Shea Theodore-Deryk Engelland
SEATTLE Jamie Oleksiak-Vince Dunn
When it comes to producing offense, this one is a bit of a rout. Entering his 10th pro season, Oleksiak seems to be at the point in his career where he’s figured out how to combine all his attributes consistently. And while Dunn remains a work in progress, particularly in the defensive end, there is still a ton of potential there. Theodore, another steal, established himself almost immediately as a Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman.
THIRD DEFENSE PAIRINGS
VEGAS Luca Sbisa-Colin Miller
SEATTLE Carson Soucy-Jeremy Lauzon
At 6-foot-5 and 211 pounds, Soucy isn’t even the biggest guy on the Kraken’s defense corps. That designation belongs to the 6-foot-7, 255-pound Oleksiak. The Soucy-Lauzon potential pairing would make life very, very miserable for opposing forwards. And Soucy can also produce a modicum of offense. Overall, however, the Sbisa-Miller tandem was the far more offense-oriented of the two.
TOTAL POINTS BY DEFENSE
VEGAS 72 (in 2016-17)
SEATTLE 95 (in 2020-21)
NO. 1 GOALIES
VEGAS Marc-Andre Fleury
SEATTLE Philipp Grubauer
It’s important to remember that Fleury’s stock was not near as high when he joined the Golden Knights as it is now. In fact, statistically it was one of the worst seasons of his career. Grubauer was the opposite, posting the best season of his NHL career and finishing third in Norris voting.
BACKUP GOALIES
VEGAS Malcolm Subban
SEATTLE Chris Driedger
This one is not close. Driedger comes to the Kraken as one of the league’s top backup goalies, a stopper with the ability to take the net for extended periods of time and provide No. 1-caliber netminding. He’s unproven as a No. 1, which is probably why the Kraken pushed to get Grubauer when it became clear he couldn’t come to terms with the Avalanche.
GOALIE STATS
VEGAS 18-11-7, .908, 3.06
SEATTLE 44-15-4, .924, 2.00
GMS/COACHES
VEGAS George McPhee-Gerard Gallant
SEATTLE Ron Francis-Dave Hakstol
Almost to the day, both McPhee and Francis were essentially out of work before they were hired by their current employers. Both have long track records as hockey executives and while each went into the process with a different approach, both did a very good job of building their initial rosters. Gallant and Hakstol each had a lot of coaching experience before coming to the NHL, but Gallant’s NHL resume was much more lengthy than Hakstol’s. In terms of personality and approach to the game, the two probably could not be more different.