Same Day Analysis: The Day of Dealing Defensemen
Three blockbuster trades involving blueliners, all of which left more than a few people scratching their heads afterward
When the smoke cleared prior to the NHL draft Friday night, three very different defensemen had been dealt in blockbuster trades and all three of them left us with more questions than answers.
As in, what were the Philadelphia Flyers thinking?
Or, what were the Vancouver Canucks thinking?
And we’ll wrap it up with, what exactly were the Chicago Blackhawks thinking?
Lets’ take a look at each of the deals and try to make sense of each one:
KEEPING UP WITH THE JONES
The deal: Veteran defenseman Seth Jones, along with the No. 32 (which is actually 31) overall pick tonight and a sixth-rounder in 2022, goes to Chicago in exchange for defenseman Adam Boqvist, the 12th overall pick (which is actually 11th) and a second-rounder tonight and a first-rounder in 2022. (If that pick lands in the top two, it moves to 2023). Jones immediately signs a seven-year extension worth $76 million that takes effect in the 2022-23 season.
The analysis: The Blue Jackets are in a full-on rebuild and they managed to get a whole lot of assets for a player who made it clear to them that he had no intention of re-signing there when his current contract expires after next season. They’re also getting a 20-year-old defenseman with a ton of upside in Boqvist. The Blackhawks, on the other hand, are obviously hoping they’re not getting the Seth Jones that played for the Blue Jackets last season, because that Seth Jones was not very good. The Blackhawks, who seem to have been meticulously building the past couple of seasons, must think they’re on the fast track to something.
So what exactly are the Blackhawks getting? Well, nobody really knows. If Jones is in decline at the age of 26, this trade and contract are not going to age well at all. All of this adds up to a significant gamble on the part of the Blackhawks. Jones struggled in both the analytics and eye-test measurements. He failed to drive the play the way he did early in his career and really struggled in all areas of the ice.
Perhaps knowing he’ll be in the same place for the next seven years will bring out the best in Jones. And it’s not as though he’s definitely on a downward trajectory at this point in his career. He’s only 26. The universal notion was that the Montreal Canadiens got fleeced when they traded P.K. Subban for Shea Weber, but now it’s not even close.
OEL, WHAT THE HELL?
The deal: The Vancouver Canucks acquire defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson and right winger Conor Garland from the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for left wingers Loui Eriksson and Antoine Roussel, center Jay Beagle, the ninth overall pick in 2021, a second-round pick in 2022 and a third-rounder in 2023.
The analysis: Vancouver GM Jim Benning shed $12 million in cap commitments next season and gained $7.26 million for Ekman-Larsson, plus whatever pending restricted free agent Garland gets, either in a negotiated contract or arbitration. And he gets two players who will definitely help his team more than the three he shipped out. And the draft picks won’t play for a couple of years. So the Canucks got better in the short term. Great.
But as we said off the top, what were they thinking? All Benning had to do was…Wait. One. More. Year. That’s when all three of the burdensome contracts belonging to Eriksson, Beagle and Roussel – they’re ugly on their own and hideous as a group – are scheduled to come off the books. But they’ll have the Ekman-Larsson contract around their necks for each of the next six seasons. And that is significant, considering this deal started looking bad shortly after the ink on it was dried. Unlike Seth Jones, Ekman-Larsson has not just had one bad season. He’s been in a serious and precipitous decline for a couple of years now.
Arizona, meanwhile, actually moved up two spots in the draft. With the 11th overall pick - which they would have owned if not for the fact they lost their first-round pick because of recruiting violations – gone, GM Bill Armstrong got his team back in the first round of the draft and has spent the past week stocking up picks. (They used Dylan Guenther with the ninth overall choice.) The Coyotes will retain $990,000 of Ekman-Larsson’s $8.25 salary and cap hit for the next six seasons and are taking on $12 million in cap commitments with Eriksson, Roussel and Beagle for just one. But it’s important to note that the players will actually only be paid $10.2 million next season, so they’ll be paying a total of $11.19 million in money for $12 million in cap space. And it’s important to remember that Ekman-Larson was paid just $12 million by the Coyotes in the first two years of the deal. So in terms of real money, the Canucks will be paying Ekman-Larsson an average of $9 million per season throughout the deal. That includes a $10.5 million ticket in each of the next three seasons.
Essentially, this deal was Garland for the ninth overall pick in 2021 and two more picks and Ekman-Larsson’s terrible contract for three of the Canucks’ terrible contracts. But the Canucks will be stuck with the bad contract for a lot longer.
CAN YOU SAY OVERPAY?
The deal: The Philadelphia Flyers get defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen from Buffalo in exchange for the 14th overall pick (actually 13th, which turned out to be Isak Rosen) in 2021, a 2023 second-round pick and defenseman Robert Hagg.
The analysis: If this is what GM Kevyn Adams could get for Ristolainen, we can’t wait to see the haul he brings in for Jack Eichel. OK, perhaps that’s a false equivalency, but you get the sentiment. After years of losing games and losing trades, the Buffalo Sabres have finally won something. And that was this trade. The Sabres have lost a Rasmus, but they have two more of those, and they’ve gained a host of assets.
Another guy who has fallen out of favor in the analytics community, Ristolainen carried an enormous price tag by any measurement. What the Flyers are obviously banking on is that Ristolainen will join the conga line of players who were terrible in the tire fire that was the Sabres and better days are ahead with a better team. It certainly could happen. And if it does, perhaps the exorbitant price the Flyers paid will prove to be worth it.