Same Day Analysis: Heiskanen deal likely won't have a big impact on Cale Makar
Word is Makar wants to be compared to the league's best young players, not the best young defensemen. Analyzing that deal and a host of others on a busy, busy day in the NHL
Keeping up with all the moves on the day NHL teams have to finalize their expansion draft protected lists is a little like herding cats, but we’ll give it a shot:
THE MIRO HEISKANEN DEAL (AND ITS AFTER-EFFECTS)
It’s fair to say that the two NHL players who looked on with most interest at the Dallas Stars signing defenseman Miro Heiskanen to an eight-year deal worth $8.45 million per season were Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche and Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks. In a world where the salary cap is going to be flat for the foreseeable future, getting Heiskanen for that number seems to be a good deal for both sides. And it puts Heiskanen just ahead of Thomas Chabot of the Ottawa Senators, who is coming off the first year of an eight-year, $64 million contract extension.
So it seems as though the market has been pretty much set for Makar and Hughes, right? Should be easy to have them fall into line with new deals now, right?
Actually, not so fast. I’m hearing that Makar has no interest in those comparables. His representatives have been trying to convince the Colorado Avalanche for months that Makar should not be compared to the best young defensemen coming out of entry-level deals, but the best young players coming out of entry-level deals. And who are they? Well, let’s start with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Both signed five-year extensions, with Matthews checking in with an $11.6 million annual average salary and Marner at $10.9 million per year.
When establishing worth of young players, the conventional thinking is that forwards are compared to other forwards and defensemen to defensemen. But Makar is putting that traditional thinking to the test. Could I see Makar, the 2020 Calder Trophy winner and Norris Trophy runner-up in 2021, asking for $10 million a season on a long-term deal? Yes, I can. After all, he’s as valuable to his team as either Matthews or Marner is to the Maple Leafs. And when it comes to comparables with young defensemen, none of Chabot, Heiskanen or Hughes has his resume. Makar finished 12th in voting for the Hart Trophy, for goodness sake.
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NASHVILLE DEALS RYAN ELLIS
Without a doubt, the biggest hockey trade of the day came when the Nashville Predators dealt defenseman Ryan Ellis to the Philadelphia Flyers for defenseman Philippe Myers and center Nolan Patrick, the second overall pick in the 2017 draft, whom they immediately flipped to Vegas for Cody Glass, who was the Golden Knights’ first-ever draft pick.
The Flyers are taking a huge, huge gamble here. Ellis was once an elite defenseman in the NHL, but injuries have taken their toll the past couple of seasons. There has got to be real concern that this deal will not age very well at all. Ellis is 30 years old and has six years remaining on his deal at $6.25 million per season. If he can return to form and put together a couple of injury-free campaigns, the Flyers will likely get a bump in the short-term.
Myers went through the 2015 and ’16 drafts without being selected, and when the Flyers signed him in 2017 it looked like a brilliant move on a late-blooming prospect. And things started out well, but Myers’ star started to fade as he seemed to be stuck in the same mire as many of the Flyers promising young players. He should, however, benefit from a fresh start in Nashville. With Patrick, injuries and migraines have derailed his development and, while he’s certainly capable of contributing more if he can stay healthy, he is not going to fill the chasm the Golden Knights have down the middle. Glass is another previously highly touted prospect who has yet to pan out and likely projects as a bottom-six forward in Nashville, but he doesn’t have to be protected in the expansion draft.
JARED McCANN TO TORONTO
Anyone who predicted Jared McCann would score on a 60-point pace in his sixth season in the NHL in 2020-21, go directly to the front of the class and collect your gold star. The Maple Leafs aren’t likely to get that kind of output from him, but getting him for a seventh-round draft choice and a prospect they acquired from the Penguins a year ago was a great move by Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas. The Penguins, meanwhile, drop $2.9 million in salary cap commitment next season and have one fewer player to protect in the expansion draft.
This, of course, also lends a lot of credence to the notion that the Maple Leafs will expose center Alex Kerfoot in the expansion draft. Could Dubas be cooking up a deal with the Kraken to direct them to Kerfoot? It’s certainly possible and it would allow the Leafs to keep both Travis Dermott and Justin Holl. If that happens, the Leafs will have upgraded their third-line center position with McCann, who is cheaper, more productive and slightly less expensive than Kerfoot.
SHARKS ADDRESS THEIR GOALTENDING
If there was one enormous chasm that a team needed to fill this off-season, it was the San Jose Sharks and their goaltending. To be charitable, it has been awful the past couple of seasons. And they did that by acquiring Adin Hill from the Arizona Coyotes for goaltending prospect Josef Korenar. A second-round pick in 2022 is also coming the Coyotes’ way, with a seventh-rounder in 2002 going to San Jose.
The Coyotes are set in goal with Darcy Kuemper and risked losing Hill in the expansion draft. Hill has played parts of four seasons in Arizona and has a pretty decent NHL resume considering he’s only 25. That’s traditionally the age when goalies in the NHL begin hitting their stride and the Sharks hope that will be the case with Hill. Because, hoo boy, do they need the help. The Sharks will almost certainly expose Martin Jones, who has been in a multi-year decline, in the expansion draft and would be thrilled if Seattle took him off their hands. That’s not happening, unless there’s a side deal. The next move for the Sharks will likely be to decide whether or not to buy Jones out of his deal, which has three years remaining at $5.75 million per year.
GOODROW’S RIGHTS TO RANGERS
A move such as this one was not completely unexpected by the Tampa Bay Lightning, given that there was almost no chance they were going to be able to re-sign Barclay Goodrow, a pending unrestricted free agent. In fact, at Hockey Unfiltered, I wrote about how the Lightning could lose their entire third line. It’s an intriguing move for the Rangers, who will try to sign Goodrow before he becomes a UFA. All the Rangers had to give up for Goodrow’s rights was a seventh-round pick in 2022. They also traded Brett Howden to Vegas for a fourth-rounder in 2022 and minor-league defenseman Nick DiSimone.
The Rangers are flush with cap space and should have no trouble meeting the financial demands of Goodrow, who will be looking for a hefty raise on his $925,000 annual salary. His stock has shot up considerably with his gritty play for the two-time Stanley Cup champions. “His playoff performance, coupled with his evolution as a player…Barclay Goodrow is a player who has gotten better each and every year,” Goodrow’s agent, Ian Pulver, told Hockey Unfiltered during the Stanley Cup final. “From a playoff standpoint, he’s a guy who steps up at the most important times.”
LADD ON THE MOVE
For the Arizona Coyotes, today was all about recouping draft picks and stocking their system. And for the New York Islanders, the trade of Andrew Ladd and three picks to the Coyotes was all about Lou Lamoriello proving once again why he is the godfather of all GMs and the back-to-back and reigning GM of the Year in the NHL.
The Coyotes didn’t draft until the fourth round last year and when they did pick 111th overall, they chose Mitch Miller, a player whose draft rights they renounced after it was learned Miller was convicted for bullying a Black classmate with developmental disabilities in 2016. That means their first actual pick came at No. 142, when they took Carson Bantle. This year, the Coyotes have forfeited their first-round pick (along with their second-rounder last year) because of recruiting violations.
So picking up a second-rounder in the Adin Hill trade and three picks in the Ladd deal – a second-rounder in 2021, a conditional second rounder in 2022 and a conditional third-round in 2023 – means GM Bill Armstrong is giving his scouting staff some picks with which to work in the draft. “Our main goal today when we woke up, and it has been for the majority of the year, was to stock the shelves,” Armstrong said. “And I think we did that. Because of our cap, we can take in some money for decent players who are still good NHL players and, at the same time, accumulate picks.”
It’s doubtful whether Ladd actually falls into that, “decent players who are still good NHL players” category. Over the past three seasons, Ladd has been limited to just 30 NHL games, including just four games over the past two seasons, largely because of recurring knee injuries. He did play 34 games for the Islanders AHL affiliate in 2019-20 and one last season. “He’s a two-time Stanley Cup winner,” Armstrong said of Ladd. “With our new coach (Andre Tourigny) coming in the door and preaching about the new culture that he wants to implement, I think that Andrew Ladd can be a driver of that for us. There are a lot of doubters who say he’s not at the point he was before. My conversations with him is he’s training hard, he believes he’s an NHL player and he can have an impact for us.”
So, worst-case scenario, the Coyotes took on $5.5 million in cap commitments the next two seasons to get three draft choices. The Islanders get out from under an enormous cap commitment and didn’t have to give up a first-round pick to do it. The Islanders could have almost $20 million in cap space to work with in the off-season.
DICKINSON TO CANUCKS
Phew. Lastly, the Vancouver Canucks picked up center Jason Dickinson from the Dallas Stars for a third-round pick. Dickinson will add to the Canucks’ forward depth and could end up being their third-line center. Tapping out now.
Personally, I feel like Cody Glass is a huge steal for Nashville. They got the best deal in that trade.