Same Day Analysis: Does Duncan Keith move the needle in Edmonton?
The three-time Stanley Cup champion and two-time Norris Trophy winner doesn't have to be the defenseman he was a decade ago. He just can't be the defenseman he's been the past couple of seasons
First things first. If you’re going to erect statues of Bobby Hull and Stan Mikita outside the United Center, the Chicago Blackhawks should immediately commission the artist to start working on one of Duncan Keith. And, of course, any statue of him would not be complete without having seven teeth at Keith’s feet.
With apologies to Pierre Pilote, Doug Wilson and Chris Chelios, Duncan Keith is the greatest defenseman in franchise history. And it’s not close because you could argue after Patrick Kane, a case could be made that he’s the best player in the history of the Blackhawks. Yes, ahead of Hull and Mikita and Tony Esposito and Jonathan Toews. There, I said it.
Like Pilote and Chelios, Keith won two Norris Trophies with the Blackhawks. Unlike Pilote and Chelios, he won three Stanley Cups, including 2015 when he led a group – one that also included Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brent Seabrook and Johnny Oduya – that by the end of that Cup run was being held together only by string and duct tape, and won the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most valuable player in the post-season. He made so much happen in Chicago for so long and was one of the integral players for a team that dominated the NHL for a period of six years. What is mind-blowing is that every single season he has played for the Blackhawks beginning in 2005-06, Keith has led the team in ice time per game. Every. Single. One. Add in two Olympic gold medals and you have a Hall of Fame resume right there.
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Now, if that were the player showing up for the Edmonton Oilers next season, and not the one who turns 38 on Friday, the Oilers would be in a position to plan a Stanley Cup parade of their own. But we all know that isn’t the case. Instead of playing top-pairing minutes and shouldering tons of responsibility, all the while mentoring young defensemen, Keith will slide into the left side of Edmonton’s second defense pairing, along with Adam Larsson, a pending unrestricted free agent who is expected to re-sign with Edmonton.
It should be a good move. Keith is proud and determined and will do everything in his power to make this work. Is it worth giving up a 24-year-old defenseman making the league minimum and a third-round pick, while absorbing all of the $5.5 million cap hit for two seasons? That’s where things get sticky. The Oilers obviously have determined that Caleb Jones is not going to be an NHLer of any impact and there’s a good chance that third-rounder ends up never playing in the NHL, so the return is negligible. Eating that full cap hit, though, without sending any unwanted dollars back the other way is where this deal carries a ton of red flags. It’s solely on that basis where this deal will be judged.
But it’s also not Keith’s fault that the Blackhawks leaned so heavily on him in recent years and contributed to him having so much mileage on his body, one that he keeps in top condition with freakish off-season workouts. It was not fair for them to expect him to be the same defenseman he was a decade ago. In terms of analytics, Keith was one of the worst defensemen in the NHL last season, but the Blackhawks kept putting him out there, expecting him to do the things he’s done his entire career and help the organization’s young defensemen along. It’s interesting that on the same day Pierre McGuire was hired to be second-in-command in Ottawa, then talked about analytics not being able to measure heart and character, Keith would be involved in a deal revolving around the same sorts of discussions.
The Oilers desperately need an established NHLer to fill in on their blueline. This move does not inspire a lot of confidence that Oscar Klefbom is going to be able to play this season. And they don’t need Duncan Keith to be a Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman. What they need is a steady blueline presence for the next two years, a player who will provide them with quality minutes on the back end. All their fans want is for the Oilers to be competitive now, while Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are in the primes of their careers. Is devoting almost $9 million in cap space to Duncan Keith and Zack Kassian the way to go? Well, we’ll find out. There is no doubt both GM Ken Holland and coach Dave Tippett love their veterans. A buyout of James Neal is almost certainly on the way and Klefbom’s salary will go on LTIR, so they still have some room.
The Blackhawks, meanwhile, have cleared out a significant amount of cap room, which will allow them to be players in the free agent market this summer. As we mentioned, Dougie Hamilton is not going to Edmonton, but you’d have to think Chicago would be on his short list if they decide to pursue him. Seth Jones will also be dealt this summer and the Blackhawks, who feel they’ve endured enough of a rebuild and hope to start making some tangible gains, could be in on him as well.
From Edmonton’s perspective, there’s the hope that Keith still has game, that his skills will not erode over the next two seasons to the point where he can no longer be a decent contributor to an NHL blueline. Not sure this moves the needle enough for them, but if desire and experience count for anything, the Oilers are a better team today than they were yesterday.