Round 2 preview: The Battle of Alberta...and Florida

The hockey gods have smiled upon us with some intriguing matchups in the second round, including the first Calgary-Edmonton series in more than 30 years

EASTERN CONFERENCE

The Panthers and the Lightning will be must viewing in Round 2.

FLORIDA PANTHERS VS. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Season series
Florida: 2-1-1 (19GF)
Tampa Bay: 2-2-0 (15 GF)
How the Panthers win: Through the first four games of their first-round series against the Washington Capitals, the Panthers looked skittish and nervous, nothing like the juggernaut they were during the regular season. In fact, they were two minutes from going down 3-1. It should not have been this difficult, but perhaps it’s a good thing that it was. That might have been a wakeup call to the Panthers and a test in dealing with adversity. They dealt with it and looked much more like themselves in Games 5 and 6, and they finally chased away their first-round demons. The regular season series between the two teams was slightly weird – the Panthers scored nine goals in one game and gave up eight in another. Sergei Bobrovsky was not great in Round 1, but he doesn’t need to be in order for the Panthers to win. He just needs to be good.
How the Lightning win: In their seven games against the Toronto Maple Leafs in Round 1, the Lightning needed every bit of their championship pedigree and will to win in order to prevail. It actually might have been the most difficult of the nine series they’ve won since 2020. So you certainly have to wonder if they’ll have enough left over in reserve to beat the Presidents’ Trophy winners. If Brayden Point can’t go in this series, it could be too much for them, but that’s what a lot of people thought when he left Game 7 against Toronto. Andrei Vasilevskiy was beatable and ordinary in Games 1 through 6, but dominated in Game 7. In that sense, he was much like his team. In the decisive game, the Lightning gave the Leafs almost nothing and were air-tight once they got a one-goal lead.
X Factors
Florida: Getting six goals and 12 points from Carter Verhaeghe was a revelation for Florida, but if the Panthers are going to be successful, they’ll need more from Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov.
Tampa Bay: If Point is unavailable, the Lightning will be without their drive train and best clutch player. It might be too much to overcome.
Prediction: Tampa Bay in 7

Adam Fox had at least a point in each game in Round 1.

CAROLINA HURRICANES VS. NEW YORK RANGERS
Season series
Carolina: 3-0-1 (14 GF)
N.Y. Rangers: 1-3-0 (10 GF)
How the Hurricanes win: The Hurricanes handled the Rangers pretty well this past season, but they were 3-0-0 and outscored the Boston Bruins 16-1 in the regular season, but still needed seven games to prevail. That the Hurricanes are led in scoring by Tony DeAngelo with eight points is not unfathomable. But that he is joined at the top of the team’s scoring list by fellow defenseman Jaccob Slavin ranks as one of the bigger surprises of the playoffs. It’s great that the blueline corps has been so productive, but the Hurricanes need more from the likes of Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Martin Necas. The Hurricanes, from top to bottom, probably have the best defense corps in the NHL. The Hurricanes worked hard to get home-ice advantage in at least the first two rounds of the playoffs and it proved to be crucial to them winning in the first round. This is a team that is dominant at home, but they also got 54 points on the road this season.
How the Rangers win: There was not a team that made it out of the first round that was luckier than the Rangers were. But they’re pretty used to that at this point. Their defensive metrics are pretty terrible, but they live on superior goaltending and an ability to take advantage of their opportunities. The Rangers also showed a lot of pushback in this series, both after losing the Game 1 triple-overtime marathon and going down 3-1 before winning three straight. In fact, they became the first team in NHL history to record three consecutive comeback wins in elimination games in a series. Goalie Igor Shesterkin averaged 36 saves a game in the series. Not 36 shots a game, 36 saves a game. When he struggled, so did the Rangers. After less-than-stellar regular seasons, the members of the Kid Line – Filip Chytil between Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko – were difference makers. “We compete, we battle and we find ways to win games that maybe we shouldn’t,” Rangers coach Gerard Gallant said after Game 7 against Pittsburgh.
X Factors
Carolina: Max Domi was outstanding in Game 7 against the Bruins and provided everything the Hurricanes hoped he would give them when he was acquired at the trade deadline.
Rangers: It’s very simple. If Shesterkin continues to play the way he did in the regular season and when he was on against Pittsburgh, the Rangers have a chance. If he plays as he did in Games 3 and 4 against the Penguins, the Rangers are sunk.
Prediction: Hurricanes in 6

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Cale Makar leads a mind-blowing Colorado attack.

COLORADO AVALANCHE VS. ST. LOUIS BLUES
Season series
Colorado: 2-1-0 (12 GF)
St. Louis: 1-2-0 (11 GF)
How the Avalanche win: In the first round of the playoffs in 2021, the Avalanche swept the Blues and outscored them 20-7. It would be a shocker if the Avs won so convincingly this spring, but you also have to consider that this iteration of the Avalanche is superior to last year’s team. No team in the NHL has more superstars and stars than Colorado and we’re at the point now where we can say with absolute certainty that Cale Makar belongs in any conversation about the best players in the world. The Avs were clinical in their first-round dismantling of the Nashville Predators and what would have to concern the Blues going into this series is that the Avalanche seem almost impossible to stop once they get themselves on a roll. The Avalanche don’t seem the least bit intimidated by the size of the moment. In fact, their best players seem to thrive on them.
How the Blues win: Well, the Blues played one of the league’s top players in Round 1 and even though Kirill Kaprizov was brilliant and went berserk with seven goals in the series, the Blues held the rest of the Wild shooters to just nine goals combined. And the Blues came as they were advertised in the regular season, getting production from up and down the lineup. Even though this team is transitioning to Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou as their key forwards, it was the old war horses David Perron, Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko who were the biggest producers. And the Blues have to be encouraged by the fact that goalie Jordan Binnington is playing much better than he did in the first round in 2022. If Torey Krug, can’t contribute, that’s a huge void for them to fill.
X Factors
Colorado: Mikko Rantanen failed to score in the first round, but then again, the Avalanche didn’t really need him to produce offense the way he did in the regular season.
St. Louis: Binnington has a Stanley Cup on his resume and he threw up a .943 in the first round in three games against the Wild. More of the same will be needed.
Prediction: Avalanche in 6

Expect to see a fair bit of skulduggery in this series.

CALGARY FLAMES VS. EDMONTON OILERS
Season series
Calgary: 2-2-0 (17 GF)
Edmonton: 2-2-0 (16 GF)
How the Flames win: The Flames outshot the Dallas Stars by an average of 18.7 shots per game in the first round and still needed overtime in Game 7 to prevail in the series. That indicates that they are willing to stick with it, that they know that their superior offensive talent will win out in the end. The Flames also showed in this series that they were prepared to put on their work boots and play in the trenches against a team that tried to grind them into dust. When they weren’t getting much, they kept pushing. And when they were getting constantly foiled by Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger, the best player of the first round, they refused to get discouraged. When you have the talent the Flames have and combine it with that kind of mentality, you have a dangerous team. The fact that Johnny Gaudreau was the highest scorer in the series with eight points in seven games was a testament to how tight and disciplined it was. That the Flames prevailed has to give them all kinds of confidence that they can play in, and win, those grinding games.
How the Oilers win: Not to be outdone, the Oilers showed they could be comfortable in a tight, low-scoring game in their Game 7 against the Los Angeles Kings. For a team that has been maligned for its defensive play, the Oilers were absolutely masterful. And when Connor McDavid gets it in his head that he’s going to be a difference maker, he has the ability to take over a series. Back in the days when these two teams battled in some of the most epic series in NHL history, the Oilers always had the star-power advantage over their rivals to the south. That is the case again this time around. Do not allow the Oilers’ six-week mid-season slumber color your perception of this team. The Oilers are elite. And they’ve been showing it.
X Factors
Calgary: Matthew Tkachuk had just one goal in seven games in Round 1 - but it came in Game 7 - and he has to be more impactful. In a rivalry that is based largely in hate for the opponent, Tkachuk seems to have no trouble wearing the black hat.
Edmonton: After a very, very rocky start to the series, Oilers goalie Mike Smith threw up a .938 save percentage in the first round. He faced an average of 37 shots per game, 68 more shots in Round 1 than his counterpart at the other end, Jacob Markstrom.
Prediction: Oilers in 7