Matthews contract a win-win, but a bigger win for the Maple Leafs
Even though he would have liked to have the organization's superstar sign a longer-term extension, it's hard to envision a scenario where things could have worked out better for GM Brad Treliving
If new GM Brad Treliving were looking to make fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs forget about boy wonder Kyle Dubas, he has been accomplishing the feat in record time. In less than three months on the job, Treliving has added a healthy dose of snot to the lineup – his term – while simultaneously rectifying a situation that had the potential to induce a fair bit of snot-crying from the fan base had it not been resolved.
The signing of Auston Matthews – one of the few superstars this organization has produced in its long history – to a four-year extension worth $53 million was a tidy bit of business for Treliving and the Leafs. With one year remaining on his current deal, the extension guarantees that a player in the prime of his career, one year removed from being the Hart Trophy winner and one of the most prodigious goal scorers in the world, will be in the fold for another five seasons. If Matthews plays out this deal and joins another team as a 30-year-old after the 2027-28 season, he will have played 12 seasons in Toronto. That would put him just outside the top 10 in terms of seasons played and likely in the top 10 all-time in games played. And depending upon what he and the Leafs accomplish in the next five seasons, Matthews could very well cement his legacy as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, Maple Leafs player of all-time.
(And after all the consternation about Matthews not being signed before his no-trade clause kicked in July 1, perhaps there will be a little less gnawing of fingernails over the pending William Nylander negotiations. But then again, with the Leafs still almost $3 million over the cap even with more than $10 million parked on LTIR, perhaps he’ll be the one to be traded. Either way, it’s clear this Treliving fellow has a pretty good grip on what he’s doing.)
Actually, it’s difficult to envision a scenario in which this could have played out better for the Maple Leafs. Of course they wanted to sign him to a longer deal, but keeping the average annual salary at $13.25 million per season is pretty reasonable, a deal that will become even more reasonable if the salary cap goes up the way many in the industry think it will in the next couple of seasons. According to reports, the Leafs pushed hard for a longer deal, but Matthews was adamant about a mid-range term. And why not? He definitely won’t be the player he is now when this contract expires, but he’ll still likely be good enough to convince somebody to sign him to a seven-year contract that might not age particularly well.
And this is where it is so great for the Maple Leafs. They get a world-class player for the best years of his career, then are free to allow him to shop himself elsewhere, which will allow another team - let’s say the Arizona Coyotes if they still exist, for kicks and giggles - to make the mistake of signing him to a seven-year deal. If the Leafs had managed to secure Matthews to an eight-year extension, that would have taken them to the 2030-31 season. But really, if the Maple Leafs are not going to win a Stanley Cup with Matthews in the lineup before he turns 30, the chances of them doing so with him after turning 30 are remote.
There will be those who will argue that Matthews, who will be the highest-paid player in the NHL until Elias Pettersson or Leon Draisaitl sign extensions, was given eight-year money on a four-year term. And there will be those who lament that Matthews did not concede on salary. But consider that even if the salary cap does not rise one penny from the $83.5 million it is set at for this coming season, Matthews’ contract will take up 15.9 per cent of the organization’s cap space. That percentage will obviously be reduced each time the salary cap increases in the coming years and that’s great for the Leafs. And it’s great for Matthews because he has almost certainly set himself up for two massive paydays instead of just one. That’s a win-win.
Speaking of winning, it is now up to Matthews to lead the Maple Leafs to a lot more W’s at the most important time of the season. There is no way of sugar coating the fact that his playoff resume is wanting. After scoring five goals in the Leafs’ first-round dispatch of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of the last spring’s playoffs, he contributed zero in their five-game ouster to the Florida Panthers in Round 2. If the Leafs do not make a serious run at a Stanley Cup with Matthews leading the way, and by that we mean getting to at least a Cup final, during the terms of this deal, it’s not going to look nearly as good in the rear-view mirror as it does today. Another Rocket Richard or Hart Trophy would be lovely, but this deal will be looked upon a lot more fondly if Matthews can manage to win a Conn Smythe.
There is a very good chance we’ve already seen the best of Auston Matthews already. His 60-goal, 106-point MVP season in 2021-22 may very well be the best it ever gets. But even if that’s the case, Matthews is primed to continue to be a superstar-level talent for the next five seasons. And the Maple Leafs have him for all of them.