Leafs can't clinch, Lightning can't go quietly into the night

'Let's all be back here for Game 7,' Lightning coach Jon Cooper said after Game 5. And that possibility is looking more likely with the Leafs again failing to put away their opponent

Tampa isn’t getting much from its big stars, but guys like Anthony Cirelli have been killing it.

This series is beginning to remind me of the Saturday Night Live skit during the 1988 U.S. presidential campaign when it did a parody of one of the debates, featuring Dana Carvey as George Bush (the first one) and Jon Lovitz as Michael Dukakis. After listening to a stream of consciousness from Carvey that made no sense, Lovitz turned to the camera and says, “I can’t believe I’m losing to this guy.”

And so it is with the first-round series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Maple Leafs doing Maple Leaf things in a game in which they could close out a series is nothing new. After all, since they last won a playoff series during the George Bush (the second one) administration, they are 0-11 in clinching games and are 2-18 when leading in a series. Clinching games indeed. Something’s clinching, amirite?

(Want more numbers? Leafs defenceman and local whipping boy Justin Holl has been on the ice for 14 goals against, nine of them at even strength. The Leafs have outscored the Lightning 18-4 when Holl is not on the ice.  “I would ask if he’s out there by himself when he gets scored on,” said Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe. “The answer to that would be no.”)

But this is a new and novel way of navigating the playoffs for the Maple Leafs, because when you think about it, they’ve actually been outplayed in large swaths of four of the five games so far in this series. And in many ways, they should actually be thanking their lucky stars that they still have two chances to close this thing out the way they’ve performed to this point. The two-time Cup champion Lightning will not go quietly into the night and if the Leafs are going to win this thing, they are going to have to earn it. That much was clear after the Lightning’s 4-2 win in Game 5 to send the series back to Tampa for Game 6 Saturday night.

“The last couple of games, we let it slip,” said Lightning third-line centre Nick Paul. “And we knew, we’re coming into Toronto, we’re winning this and we’re taking it back home.”

The Maple Leafs still might win this series. Lightning coach Jon Cooper even said so after his team won 7-3 in Game 1. But they’re going to have to start games on time, play a lot better and more consistently and, most importantly, slay their playoff demons and finally shed their reputation as choking dogs. (Stick tap to former Globe and Mail hockey scribe David Shoalts on that one.) As talented as this group of Maple Leafs is, it has been a complete failure in games where it has had an opportunity to win a series. Game 5 did nothing to dispel that reputation and now the pressure is squarely on them to avoid having to deal with another Game 7 in the first round. The Lightning, by comparison, are still doing what teams with a championship pedigree do.

“I said this at the beginning of the series,” Cooper said. “Don’t bet against the guys, not this group. To come into this environment, and it was a phenomenal environment, and to play the way we did…we’re going back to the rink. And that’s exciting for us.”

And they’re going back to the rink largely because of their all-world goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, whose .842 save percentage in Games 2 through 4 had a lot of people wondering whether or not all those Stanley Cup runs had not finally gotten the better of him. He was getting beaten blocker-high a lot, but as he has done so many times before, when he was most needed, he delivered an epic performance. The Lightning definitely dominated the game in terms of zone time and puck possession, but the number of quality chances was about the same. When the Leafs needed a save from Ilya Samsonov in the second period, he played small and deep in his net and gave up a stinker off the stick of Mikey Eyssimont. When the Lightning needed a save from Vasilevskiy clinging to a one-goal lead in the third, Vasilevskiy stopped Mitch Marner on a breakaway.

(Funny moment on the Eyssimont goal. The goal came a split second after TBS colour analyst Darren Pang said, “I’ll say this. Samsonov has exceeded at least my expectations in his first year here in Toronto.” Pang followed that comment up with, “Kiss of death.”)

The fact is, even though they’ve outplayed the Leafs through much of the series, the Lightning look tired and a little slow. Their top line of Brayden Point between Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov has contributed little at 5-on-5 – just one even-strength goal among the three of them so far in the series. Their defensive play in front of Vasilevskiy has been spotty at times and they certainly can’t seem to lock down a lead they way they usually do.

The Lightning are vulnerable, there is no question about that. But they’re also an incredibly resilient group, a proud group, a very, very heavy group. As Cooper said, they’re going back to the rink. “Let’s be honest, that’s why this game is do damn fun,” Cooper said. “Like seriously, wouldn’t you guys have been pissed off if this had ended tonight? So let’s all be back here for Game 7.”