In stalemate with Kaprizov, Guerin has to think, 'What would Lou do?'
In stalemate with Kaprizov, Guerin has to think, 'What would Lou do?'
As the high-stakes poker game between the Minnesota Wild GM and his star player unfolds, both sides seem keen on capitalizing what leverage they have
The Minnesota Wild and potential superstar Kirill Kaprizov continue to be embroiled in a contract imbroglio that seems to be getting more contentious by the day. But it’s important to remember that, even though he’s played only 55 NHL games, Kaprizov has earned every right to demand whatever he believes he’s worth. He has also earned the right to leverage a reported deal with CSKA Moscow against the Wild, and he’s free to skate straight back into the arms of his former KHL team in Russia. Last season, he led all rookies in goals (by 10!) and points, captured the Calder Trophy and helped the Wild win a bunch of games. And in return he was paid about $1.6 million, minus escrow. Kirill Kaprizov owes the Minnesota Wild nothing.
But the Wild have some rights here, too. And leverage goes both ways. Aside from re-signing with the Wild, Kaprizov has no other option than to take his services to another league, because he can’t receive an offer sheet from a rival NHL team. And even if he could, nobody would tender one. What Wild GM Bill Guerin has to do in this case is think, WWLD? As in, what would Lou (Lamoriello) do?
And he may very well be doing that. First, some history, that involves both Guerin and Lamoriello. Guerin played the first five-plus years of his NHL career for the New Jersey Devils, where Lamoriello was the GM. After tying for the team lead in goals the season prior and with no contract entering the 1997-98 season, Guerin sat out the first 21 games of that campaign and signed with the Devils only because he wanted to play in the Olympics. Lamoriello, who also happened to be Team USA’s GM, left Guerin off the roster during his contract dispute, adding him only after he signed with the Devils. Nineteen games later, Lamoriello traded Guerin to the Edmonton Oilers in a deal that brought Jason Arnott to New Jersey.
The point is, Lamoriello found Guerin’s pressure point and now it’s up to Guerin to find Kaprizov’s.
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So, as Guerin sits and wonders WWLD, he might want to contemplate the following tactic. According to Frank Seravalli of DailyFaceoff.com, Kaprizov has received a one-year, $10 million offer from CSKA. So what would Lou do in this case? Well, the best guess is that Lamoriello would tell Kaprizov and his agent something like this: “Hey, guys, if you can get $10 million tax free on a one-year deal, I suggest you take it. But as long as you’re pussyfooting around with KHL teams, don’t bother calling me to negotiate. If you have your deal, take it and we’ll talk again in a year. But I’m not negotiating against your old team in Russia.”
By all accounts, Guerin has been quite accommodating to this point. If he could get Kaprizov signed to an eight-year contract for somewhere in the $9 million range, he would make that deal in a second. He’ll likely have to be amenable to a medium-term deal of four or five years. But Kaprizov reportedly wants a short-term deal and it’s completely within his rights to demand one. He’s absolutely entitled to walk himself to unrestricted free agency in three years.
But the Wild counter with the argument that they’re already willing to give Kaprizov the biggest contract in NHL history for someone with such a short NHL resume. They’ll point out that he has played just 55 NHL games against seven teams, four of which didn’t make the playoffs. And deep down, Guerin knows there is no path to Kaprizov making $10 million, at least in the next three seasons. At least not in the NHL. Should Kaprizov elect to play in Russia this season, he’d still have to play another season before becoming eligible for arbitration, and there’s almost no chance he’s getting that kind of money going through that process. The reality is, as unpalatable as it might be, the Wild control Kaprizov’s rights for the next three seasons.
Guerin also has to use what leverage is given to him by the collective bargaining agreement. By daring Kaprizov to sign with CSKA, he puts the pressure on Kaprizov’s camp to make a move that will take him out of the NHL for at least a season. And, more importantly, it forces both Kaprizov and CSKA to put their money where their mouths are. It’s a little coincidental, isn’t it, that Kaprizov’s offer is for only one year and matches exactly the salary he’s seeking in his new deal. If Guerin uses this gambit, he obviously needs team ownership and the fan base on his side. And he risks alienating the player and damaging their relationship in the long-term. But, like former Blue Jacket Artemi Panarin felt about the city of Columbus, it doesn’t look as though Kaprizov is terribly interested in staying in Minnesota long-term anyway.
This is all part of a high-stakes negotiation, and there are still three weeks before this supposed contract kicks in between Kaprizov and CSKA, if indeed it actually exists. If it does, Guerin can allow Kaprizov to walk for a year, and if he wants to play in the NHL after that, the Wild will be waiting. They waited five years for the guy to show up the first time. Another year isn’t going to be the be-all and end-all for them.
And, after all, that’s what Lou would do.