Habs have to ask: Tanks or No-Tanks?
Today, they introduced Kent Hughes as the 18th GM in team history, but the Canadiens have a franchise-altering decision to make in the next few months
Geoff Molson, Jeff Gorton and Kent Hughes sat at a table on the ice surface of the Bell Centre, the same ice surface where the Montreal Canadiens have won exactly five of 16 games this season, and they said all the right things, in both of Canada’s official languages. And that was all really nice. They talked about team-building, player development, analytics, culture and all those other buzzwords that are making the rounds in the hockey world these days.
Those are all really important, to be sure. But the crux of the matter on the day Hughes was introduced as the 18th GM in franchise history is that in the next couple of months these three men will make a decision that will chart the course of the future for the Canadiens, and almost certainly define their legacies. In the interim, they will trade Ben Chariot before the trade deadline to get whatever assets they can there, and they’ll fire coach Dominique Ducharme, either before the season ends or shortly afterward. Those are the easy, predictable decisions.
But there is a much bigger decision here. You could argue the Canadiens are at their historical nadir this season. Their record certainly tells us that. What Molson, Gorton and Hughes have to decide is whether this roster is better than its record and is worth salvaging and building into a contender or whether it has to be stripped down to the wood, thereby embracing the tank.
This has nothing to do with this season. The Canadiens are a terrible, unsalvageable tire fire that is destined to finish in last place with the worst points percentage in franchise history. That will give them the best odds of winning the draft lottery and give them the chance to draft Shane Wright (or Matthew Savoie, who plays in the Western Hockey League and is currently outscoring Wright by a significant margin, both in terms of points and points per game). This decision will be all about 2023 and whether or not the Canadiens go all out in an effort to get a future superstar.
In a perfect world, that would be the first pick and it would be Connor Bedard. But the reality is that there are three players projected to be major impact players in the 2023 draft. Matvei Michkov is tearing up the Russian junior league and has had an interesting international battle going with Bedard. Adam Fantilli is a hulking winger who is playing for the Chicago Steel of the USHL, a late-birthday player who is headed to the University of Michigan next season. The way the lottery rules work, unless they get changed again, is that the team that finishes last overall has a 25.7 percent chance of getting the first overall pick and will choose no lower than third. So the team that finishes last in 2022-23 is guaranteed to get one of Bedard, Michkov or Fantilli.
It’s enticing. And it’s also filled with land mines. You might set everything up to tank and the Arizona Coyotes might beat you to last place without even trying. You also risk ruining your young players by exposing them to a ton of negativity and losing. The Buffalo Sabres tanked in 2014-15 to get either Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel, and the losing stench continues to follow them to this day. And if you actually fully embrace the tank, it’s not a quick process. To do it right, you have to endure five to eight years of losing before things turn around. That’s a long time in a market like Montreal.
How the Canadiens’ brain trust moves forward will affect everything for the next few seasons. For instance, why would you go out and hire a big-time coach if he’s simply going to be a place holder for a losing team? You’re not getting any high-profile free agents and every deal you make is done so within the prism of accumulating assets instead of established players. And would Brendan Gallagher want to be part of something like at this stage of his career? Would Jeff Petry? Tyler Toffoli? Carey Price? If not, then you have to go through the process of moving them out for futures. And you might do all those things and still not build a legitimate contender. See Oilers, Edmonton.
As Mike Babcock said the day he was hired by the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2015, there will be pain. And there will be a lot of it in Montreal if the Canadiens decide to go this route. But if it is communicated to the fan base the right way and the organization doesn’t deviate from the plan, there’s no reason to believe hockey fans in Montreal won’t understand and be on board. Nobody under the age of 35 knows what it’s like to see this team win a Stanley Cup, so the days of Canadiens’ fans demanding a perennial Cup contender are long gone.
Whatever Molson, Gorton and Hughes decide, there is a ton of work to do. The Canadiens are in salary cap hell and they’re the worst team in the league. And they’ve done all that while actually trying to be a good team. Think of what they might accomplish if they embrace the tank.
That was very informative. I appreciate how you present your information. It's a solid analysis. I don't think they need to tank, but with a healthy first round just over a year away, it is worth exploring.