Free Agent Frenzy: Everybody's just guessing on goalies these days
Goaltenders were changing teams at a dizzying pace on Day 1 of free agency, but we're left wondering just how many teams actually improved themselves at the position
A total of more than $780 million was committed by NHL teams on the first day of free agency in what is supposed to be flat-cap environment. As we’ll discover in the next couple of seasons, some of it will be money well-spent, but in the majority of cases owners of NHL teams would have been further ahead if they had taken the money they spent today and bought into cryptocurrency. We’re always quick to name winners and losers on days like these, but trust me, most of the teams that made a splash today will ultimately end up in the Losers side of the ledger.
There were some intriguing themes that emerged, the most prominent of which was how teams approached their goaltending needs. The Colorado Avalanche completed the complex game of musical chairs after allowing Philipp Grubauer to sign with the Seattle Kraken, then watched as the value of goalies skyrocketed to the point where they had to give up prospect Conor Timmins and a first-round pick to get Darcy Kuemper out of Arizona.
All told, after all the dollars were spent and all the moves were made, as many as 10 teams could have new No. 1 goalies next season, along with Grubauer in Seattle. It was actually dizzying to keep up with the frenetic pace of the transactions, some of which made you wonder what teams were thinking.
The Boston Bruins gave a four-year, $20 million deal to Linus Ullmark, a 27-year-old who has 117 games to his credit. The Carolina Hurricanes gave up on rookie-of-the-year finalist Alex Nedeljkovic in what was portrayed as an attempt at an upgrade, then replaced him and Petr Mrazek with Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta. That effectively completed an Andersen-for-Mrazek swap when the latter signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs on a three-year deal worth $11.4 million.
And somehow, both the Hurricanes and Maple Leafs are right now convincing themselves that their goaltending fortunes are better today than they were yesterday. The Hurricanes, who fancy themselves a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, supposedly upgraded by getting a goalie who has been a well-documented playoff underachiever and another who can’t stay healthy. And do the Maple Leafs really believe they’re appreciably better off with Mrazek over Andersen? (Spoiler alert: they’re not. When Mrazek was in Detroit, some members of team management had a secret nickname for him: Peter Erratic.)
The Chicago Blackhawks traded for a goalie they have no guarantees will even show up for training camp. The Philadelphia Flyers seem to think one of the worst statistical goalies in the NHL the past couple of seasons (Martin Jones) will be a good backup and mentor to one of the worst statistical No. 1 goalies last season (Carter Hart). The Kraken, meanwhile, seemed to have their No. 1 goalie when they signed Chris Driedger, then shocked the hockey world when they gave a six-year, $35.4 million contract to Grubauer. They also sent Vitek Vanecek, whom they had plucked off the Washington Capitals’ roster in the expansion draft, back to the Capitals in exchange for a second-round pick.
And the main reason? More than any time in NHL history, people who run hockey departments are just guessing on goalies, hoping they’ve found the right guy at the right time of his career to get a couple of quality years out of him before moving on to the next project. There was a time when the prevailing opinion was that you never overspent on goalies, but that’s exactly what a bunch of teams did in this flat-cap situation. Goaltending, it’s a funny thing. Bad goaltending gets coaches fired and good goaltending wins them Jack Adams Awards. Sometimes it has to be all-world and steal games, others it only has to be adequate enough to not lose games. And unless you have one of those all-world guys, you spend a lot of time trying to figure out the position.
None of that came into focus for me more than it did in early 2015. In a desperate attempt to stop the bleeding, the Minnesota Wild traded a third-round pick to the Arizona Coyotes for Devan Dubnyk, a goalie whom the season prior, looked about as close to the end of his career as a player could be. He’d been traded from the Edmonton Oilers to the Nashville Predators to the Montreal Canadiens, who sent him to the minors. In the space of half a season, Dubnyk propelled himself into a second-team all-star, Vezina Trophy finalist, the winner of the Masterton Trophy and fourth in votes for the Hart Trophy. He also earned himself a six-year contract worth $26 million.
Dubnyk finished up that deal this past season, one that was split between the San Jose Sharks and Colorado Avalanche and saw him post an .895 save percentage. At the age of 35, Dubnyk has likely played his last NHL game. But you never know…